苹果：F1Q26 业绩前瞻：下半年催化密集前，短期成本仍存不确定性

Summary of Apple, Inc. Earnings Preview Company Overview - Company: Apple, Inc. (AAPL.O) - Industry: IT Hardware - Market Cap: $3,678,135 million - Current Stock Price: $248.04 - Price Target: $315.00 - Fiscal Year Ending: September 2026 Key Points Industry and Market Context - The earnings preview indicates a cautious outlook for the near term due to uncertainties in the first half of the fiscal year, but a more optimistic view for the second half due to several catalysts [3][10] - Apple is expected to face challenges from rising memory costs, which are not fully reflected in consensus estimates [15][21] Financial Performance Expectations - Q1 FY26 Revenue: Expected at $139,557 million, representing a 12.3% year-over-year growth, which is above consensus estimates [23] - Q2 FY26 Revenue: Projected at $107,954 million, with a year-over-year growth of 13.2% [23] - iPhone Revenue: Anticipated to be $79,968 million for Q1 and $55,447 million for Q2, both exceeding consensus estimates [23] - EPS Estimates: Q1 EPS expected at $2.70, slightly above consensus, while Q2 EPS is projected at $1.83, in line with consensus [23][21] iPhone Demand and Supply Chain Insights - Strong demand for the iPhone 17 is expected to lead to higher shipments than consensus estimates, with projections of 83 million units for Q1 and 60 million units for Q2 [11][12] - Supply chain checks indicate robust iPhone 17 shipments, with Apple reportedly placing additional orders to secure component supply [11][9] Cost and Margin Considerations - Rising memory costs are projected to impact gross margins, with NAND prices expected to increase by 55-60% quarter-over-quarter [15] - Operating expenses (opex) are expected to be higher than consensus, with a forecast of $18.2 billion for Q2, compared to consensus of $17.2 billion [3][14] - Gross margin for FY26 is expected to contract to 45.9%, down from 46.9% in FY25 [50] Long-Term Outlook and Catalysts - The second half of FY26 is anticipated to be stronger due to several product launches, including a foldable iPhone and a new Siri/Apple Intelligence feature [10][31] - The iPhone 18 is expected to see a price increase of $100, which may help maintain gross profit levels despite rising costs [15][10] - Analysts remain positive on the long-term growth potential, with FY27 EPS forecasted at $9.77, which is 7% above consensus [10][32] Risks and Market Sentiment - The market is currently cautious, with Apple shares expected to trade sideways until there is a clearer adjustment in product gross margins [27] - Historical performance indicates that Apple shares tend to underperform in the first quarter, which may affect investor sentiment [3][27] Conclusion - While Apple faces near-term cost uncertainties and margin pressures, the strong demand for the iPhone 17 and upcoming product launches provide a foundation for potential growth in the second half of FY26. The company remains rated as "Overweight" with a price target of $315.00, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects despite short-term challenges [39][10]