中国地产周评（第 4 周）：各市场成交回暖，但先行指标显露出放缓迹象-China Property Weekly Wrap_ Week 4 Wrap - Transactions improved across markets but leading indicators showed slowing signs

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Real Estate and Property Development in China - Current Trends: Transaction volumes improved across both primary and secondary markets, but leading indicators show signs of slowing down [3][4][9] Core Insights and Arguments 1. Government Support Measures: The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) introduced new measures to support urban renewal, including: - More flexible land transition policies allowing localities to repurpose land for national priority industries [1] - Simplified planning and permit exemptions for micro-renewal projects [1] - Promotion of efficient resource utilization through innovative property registration services [1] 2. Market Activity: - Primary market transactions increased by 14% week-over-week (wow), but are down 41% year-over-year (yoy) [3][4] - Secondary market transactions rose by 5% wow and 15% yoy [9] - New home search activities decreased by 1.6% wow, and secondary subscription-based sales fell by 8% wow [3][7] 3. Pricing and Sentiment: - Average transaction prices in monitored cities improved by 3% wow, with a month-over-month (mom) increase of 1% [3] - Price expectations improved for agents (Centaline Salesman Index +1.2pp wow) and home-sellers (Centaline Seller Asking Index +0.7pp wow) [3][21][24] 4. Inventory and Sales Data: - Inventory levels remained stable with an inventory month of 29.7, slightly above the December average of 28.0 [27] - Property sales in approximately 75 cities indicate a projected decline of 31% in presales for top-100 developers in January [9] 5. Valuation Insights: - Stronger state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers saw share prices increase by 6% wow, with notable performers like Jinmao (+14% wow) and Greentown (+10% wow) [38][39] - Offshore developers are trading at an average 29% discount to end-2026 estimated net asset value (NAV) [38] 6. Future Projections: - Completions are expected to decline by high single digits (HSD) yoy in January-February 2026, with new starts also projected to decline by mid-teens % yoy [31][9] - Home appliance sales are likely to show year-over-year improvement based on secondary sales trends [9] Additional Important Information - Market Sentiment: Despite improvements in transaction volumes, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth given the decline in leading indicators [3][9] - Analyst Ratings: The report includes various ratings for developers, indicating a mix of buy and sell recommendations based on performance and market conditions [38][39] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the real estate market in China, government interventions, market activity, pricing trends, and future projections.