GOAL 启动：重回看涨区间-风险偏好指标创 2021 年以来新高-GOAL Kickstart_ Back to Bullish – Risk Appetite Indicator at highest levels since 2021

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI), which has reached its highest levels since 2021, indicating a strong risk-on sentiment in the market [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - The RAI reached 1.09, marking the highest level since 2021 and the 98th percentile since 1991. This indicates a broad risk-on repricing, with 17 out of 27 inputs of the RAI above 0.8 in z-score terms [1][12]. - Key bullish components contributing to the elevated RAI include: - Small vs. Large cap equities - Emerging Markets (EM) vs. Developed Markets (DM) equities - Bonos spreads - AUD/JPY currency pair [1][12]. - The gold rally suggests a more cautious sentiment; excluding gold, the RAI would be nearly 1.2 [1]. - The Global growth factor (PC1) was identified as the main driver behind the increase in the RAI [1][42]. - Historically, elevated RAI levels have been associated with positive equity returns, particularly in the subsequent 12 months, although returns tend to slow after about 6 months [2][4]. - The most negative episode occurred in May 2007, while the most positive was in 2021, which coincided with a prolonged period of RAI above 1 [2]. Additional Important Insights - Elevated RAI levels alone do not signal a bearish turn; a supportive macro backdrop is necessary for sustaining positive equity returns [3][4]. - The distribution of S&P 500 returns is influenced by the starting RAI level, with a higher likelihood of small corrections when starting from an RAI above 0.9 [3]. - The company maintains a modestly pro-risk asset allocation for 2026, favoring equities while being underweight in credit [5][21]. - Selective options hedges are being considered for both downside and upside growth risks, with attractive spreads identified on Nasdaq/S&P 500 and call spreads on various indices [6]. Conclusion - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high risk appetite, supported by macroeconomic factors, which could lead to sustained positive equity returns. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on this environment while managing risks through selective hedging strategies.