AAG(AAL) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, American Airlines reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.16 and full-year adjusted earnings per share of $0.36, which were below guidance primarily due to a prolonged government shutdown impacting revenue by approximately $325 million [19][20] - System-wide revenue intakes for the first three weeks of 2026 are up double digits year-over-year, with premium revenue outperforming main cabin revenue throughout the quarter [20][21] - The company expects adjusted earnings per diluted share for 2026 to be approximately $1.70-$2.70, with first-quarter revenue projected to increase by 7%-10% year-over-year [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium unit revenue outpaced main cabin by seven points in Q4 2025, indicating strong demand for premium products [20][21] - Managed corporate revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, reflecting strength in indirect channels [20] - The company anticipates continued improvement in premium unit revenue in 2026, with a focus on expanding premium offerings across the customer journey [23][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Atlantic unit revenue was up 4% year-over-year, making it the most profitable region during Q4 2025, while Latin America faced revenue pressure [21][22] - Domestic unit revenue had inflected positive in September and remained positive before the government shutdown, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [20][21] - The company expects mixed performance in international unit revenue for Q1 2026, with strong transatlantic performance and flat unit revenue in Latin America and Pacific entities [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company’s strategy focuses on delivering a consistent customer experience, maximizing network and fleet power, building loyalty partnerships, and advancing sales and revenue management efforts [9][18] - American Airlines plans to expand its international fleet and premium seating, with a goal to increase its international capable fleet from 139 to 200 aircraft by the end of the decade [14][24] - The company is committed to reducing total debt to below $35 billion by the end of 2026, having already reduced total debt by $2.1 billion in 2025 [28][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025, including significant operational disruptions due to Winter Storm Fern, but emphasized the strength of the balance sheet and the foundation built for future growth [6][19] - The company is optimistic about the opportunities in 2026, citing strong booking trends and a record Net Promoter Score for on-time customers [9][20] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to deliver efficient capacity and improve customer satisfaction through operational changes and investments in technology [26][50] Other Important Information - The company has fully restored its historical sales and distribution indirect share and is focused on further growth in 2026 and beyond [7][18] - American Airlines is investing in enhancing customer experience through new products and services, including the introduction of complimentary high-speed satellite Wi-Fi [11][12] - The company is also making significant investments in its lounges and onboard experience to differentiate itself in the market [10][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on hub structure and profitability - Management confirmed that Chicago is strategically important and plans to grow back to 500 flights, expecting it to return to average profitability levels [32][42] Question: Cost trajectory in 2026 - Management indicated that unit cost growth is expected to be low single-digit, with adjustments based on demand and competitive environment [34] Question: Premium growth rate and revenue outlook - Premium performance in Q4 2025 was strong, and management expects continued growth in premium seats and revenue in 2026 [36] Question: Full-year guidance and booking strength - Management acknowledged strong bookings but did not build this strength into the full-year guidance, indicating potential conservatism [40][64] Question: Impact of Winter Storm Fern on revenue - Management assessed that the revenue impact from the storm would likely be largely foregone, with limited recapture expected [46] Question: Operations and capacity growth - Management confirmed plans for significant capacity growth in 2026, particularly in Philadelphia, Miami, and Phoenix, while maintaining a focus on operational reliability [54][62]