AI 价值链全景解析-各标的实际 AI 上行空间几何？谁是被低估的赢家-AI Value Chain Putting it all together - how much AI upside does each name really have, and who might be an underappreciated winner

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. Semiconductors industry, particularly the AI value chain and its implications for various companies involved in hardware and semiconductor verticals [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - A top-down framework is constructed to dimension the AI upside across sectors from 2025 to 2027, aimed at simplifying comparisons across different companies [2][19] - The analysis updates the breakdown of data center capital expenditures (capex) to reflect rising prices for DRAM and NAND, estimating an increase of approximately $70,000 per rack for server DRAM and $35,000 per rack for storage costs, raising all-in capex from $5.9 million to $6.0 million per rack [3][21] - Incremental revenue estimates per gigawatt (GW) of capacity are derived from market share estimates across nine key hardware/semiconductor verticals, with a regression analysis used to estimate margins on incremental AI revenue [4][23] Company-Specific Insights - Unimicron and Ibiden are highlighted as having significant upside potential, particularly in ABF substrate and HDI, with Unimicron expected to benefit from large opportunities [5][27] - Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) are identified as industry favorites, with Nvidia's AI substrate upgrade expected to double content generation [5][27] - Intel (INTC) and Cisco are noted to have lower exposure to AI opportunities compared to their market prominence, with Intel facing challenges in capturing market share [6][28][31] - Delta Electronics is rated as outperforming, with a price target of NT$1,300, benefiting from increased electrical content in AI data centers [13][30] - MediaTek is expected to see growth from the TPU ramp, while memory/storage players like SanDisk, Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, and KIOXIA are projected to benefit from rapid memory price surges [6][30] Financial Metrics and Valuations - The report includes a detailed ticker table with performance metrics for various companies, including EPS and adjusted P/E ratios, indicating that Unimicron has room for growth while Intel appears expensive relative to its AI opportunities [9][29] - Nvidia is rated outperform with a target price of $275, while AMD is rated market perform with a target of $225, reflecting high expectations for AI growth [11][12] Additional Considerations - The analysis acknowledges that estimates of AI upside are imprecise and that valuations are influenced by various non-AI factors, suggesting that investors should consider their own assumptions for more accurate estimates [20][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the nuances of each company's position within the AI landscape, including their ability to adapt to evolving data center requirements [20][30] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI, with specific companies like Unimicron and Ibiden positioned to capture substantial market share. However, challenges remain for established players like Intel, highlighting the dynamic nature of the sector and the need for careful analysis of individual company prospects [5][6][27][30]