中国电池材料-实地看中国电池供应链：尽管成本通胀的季节性担忧仍存，需求保持韧性-China Battery Materials China Battery Supply Chain on the Ground Resilient demand despite seasonality concern on cost inflation

Summary of the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Battery Supply Chain, highlighting the resilience of demand despite seasonal fluctuations and concerns regarding cost inflation [1] Key Insights - Production Pipeline Decline: The top four battery manufacturers are expected to see an 11% month-over-month (MoM) decline in their production pipeline for February, primarily due to Gotion not updating its plans amid rising costs [1] - Resilient Demand: Despite entering a slack season due to the Chinese New Year, demand remains strong, with daily production output and utilization rates largely unchanged [1] - Export Demand: The resilience in demand is attributed to front-loading of export orders before the anticipated cut in export tax rebates starting April 1 [1] - Lithium and Cathode Production: ZE Consulting forecasts a 5% MoM decline in lithium and cathode production pipelines for February, indicating slightly tight dynamics in the lithium market supported by cathode demand [1] - Price Outlook: The combination of tight supply dynamics and liquidity momentum is expected to push lithium prices higher in the near term [1] Production Data - Top 4 Battery Makers Production (GWh): - NCM Production: - January 2026: 25.6 GWh - February 2026: 21.7 GWh (down 15% MoM) [2] - LFP Production: - January 2026: 101.5 GWh - February 2026: 91.2 GWh (down 10% MoM) [2] - Total Production: - January 2026: 127.1 GWh - February 2026: 112.9 GWh (down 11% MoM) [2] Year-over-Year Comparisons - NCM Production YOY: - February 2025: 17.8 GWh - February 2026: 21.7 GWh (up 22% YOY) [2] - LFP Production YOY: - February 2025: 73.7 GWh - February 2026: 91.2 GWh (up 24% YOY) [2] - Total Production YOY: - February 2025: 91.5 GWh - February 2026: 112.9 GWh (up 23% YOY) [2] Additional Insights - Electrolyte Production: Forecasted to decline by 6% MoM [6] - Lithium Production: Expected to decrease by 5% MoM [7] - Cathode Production: Anticipated to drop by 5% MoM [10] - Anode Production: Forecasted to decline by 9% MoM [11] Conclusion - The China Battery Supply Chain is currently facing production challenges due to cost inflation and seasonal demand fluctuations. However, the overall demand remains robust, particularly in the lithium market, which is expected to see price increases in the near term due to tight supply dynamics and strong cathode demand support [1][2]