PCA(PKG) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net income was $102 million or $1.13 per share, while excluding special items, it was $209 million or $2.32 per share, compared to $222 million or $2.47 per share in Q4 2024 [3][4] - Fourth quarter net sales increased to $2.4 billion in 2025 from $2.1 billion in 2024, and total company EBITDA, excluding special items, rose to $486 million from $439 million [4][5] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $9 billion, up from $8.4 billion in 2024, and EBITDA increased to $1.86 billion from $1.64 billion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the packaging segment, Q4 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $476 million with sales of $2.2 billion, resulting in a margin of 21.7%, compared to last year's EBITDA of $426 million and sales of $2 billion [7] - For the full year 2025, packaging segment EBITDA was $1.83 billion with sales of $8.3 billion, a margin of 22.1%, compared to $1.6 billion and $7.7 billion in 2024 [8] - The paper segment's Q4 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $37 million with sales of $154 million, a margin of 24.2%, compared to $39 million and $151 million in Q4 2024 [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices were $0.50 per share above Q4 2024 but down $0.32 per share compared to Q3 2025 [11] - Export containerboard prices were flat year-over-year and down $0.01 from Q3 2025, with export sales volume up 12,000 tons from Q3 2025 but down 15,000 tons from Q4 2024 [11] - Legacy box plant shipments were down 1.7% compared to last year's record Q4, but overall shipments for 2025 were flat with 2024 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the acquired Greif operations and improving operational efficiency, with plans for gas turbine energy projects to enhance energy independence and reduce costs [10][23] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, investing in growth while returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [24] - The company is optimistic about demand trends heading into 2026, with expectations for year-over-year growth in corrugated volume and strong shipment volume from acquired plants [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that operational performance was strong across the mill system, and they expect to operate at full capacity with improved cost structures from the Wallula restructuring [9][26] - The company anticipates challenges from rising costs in labor, energy, and materials, but expects to benefit from price increases in containerboard starting March [25][26] - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand trends, citing improvements in consumer sentiment and GDP growth as positive indicators for future performance [53][65] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations reached a record $443 million in Q4, with free cash flow of $124 million after capital expenditures of $319 million [19] - The company ended the year with a cash balance of $668 million and liquidity of about $1.25 billion, with planned capital expenditures for 2026 estimated between $840 million and $870 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected increase in cost per ton in the containerboard business? - Management indicated uncertainty due to seasonal weather impacts and inflationary concerns but noted a potential increase of about $10 per ton [30][36] Question: How are winter storms impacting operations and guidance? - Management reported that winter storms caused some plants to be down, affecting shipments, but they are assessing the situation and expect to recover [32][34] Question: What is the status of the Greif acquisition and its impact on operations? - Management confirmed that they are discontinuing Greif's previous purchase commitments and are focused on integrating the acquired assets for improved operational efficiency [49][43] Question: How does the current demand environment compare to last year? - Management noted a more positive sentiment across the customer base, with improved visibility and predictability in demand compared to the previous year [72][73] Question: Are the recent price increases reflected in the Q1 guidance? - Management stated that the $70 per ton price increase effective March 1 is partially included in the Q1 guidance, but not the full benefit [56]