PCA(PKG) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net income was $102 million or $1.13 per share, while excluding special items, it was $209 million or $2.32 per share, compared to $222 million or $2.47 per share in Q4 2024 [3][4] - Fourth quarter net sales increased to $2.4 billion in 2025 from $2.1 billion in 2024, and total company EBITDA, excluding special items, rose to $486 million from $439 million [4][5] - Full-year 2025 earnings were $888 million or $9.84 per share, up from $815 million or $9.04 per share in 2024 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Packaging segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $476 million with sales of $2.2 billion in Q4 2025, compared to $426 million and $2 billion in Q4 2024, resulting in a margin increase to 21.7% from 21.5% [7] - For the full year 2025, packaging segment EBITDA was $1.83 billion with sales of $8.3 billion, a margin of 22.1%, compared to $1.6 billion and $7.7 billion in 2024 [8] - Paper segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $37 million with sales of $154 million in Q4 2025, compared to $39 million and $151 million in Q4 2024 [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.50 per share above Q4 2024, but down $0.32 per share compared to Q3 2025 [11] - Export containerboard prices were flat compared to Q4 2024 and down $0.01 from Q3 2025, with export sales volume up 12,000 tons from Q3 2025 but down 15,000 tons from Q4 2024 [11] - Legacy corrugated shipments per day were down 1.7% versus last year's record Q4, although legacy box plant shipments were the second highest ever [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the acquired Greif operations and improving operational efficiency, with plans for gas turbine energy projects to enhance energy independence and reduce costs [10][23] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, investing in growth while returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [24] - The company is optimistic about demand improvement in 2026, with expectations for solid year-over-year growth in corrugated volume and strong shipment volume from acquired plants [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that operational performance was strong across the mill and corrugated systems, with good cost management throughout the company [9] - The company expects to face inflationary pressures on costs, particularly in labor, energy, and materials, but anticipates benefits from the Wallula reconfiguration starting in March [26] - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand trends, citing improvements in consumer sentiment and GDP growth as positive indicators for the business [53][64] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations reached a record $443 million in Q4, with free cash flow of $124 million after capital expenditures of $319 million [19] - The company has planned annual outages in 2026, which are expected to impact earnings significantly, with estimated costs of about $1.39 per share [21] - The company ended the year with a cash balance of $668 million and liquidity of about $1.25 billion [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more granularity on cost increases in the containerboard business? - Management indicated that costs are expected to increase due to seasonal weather impacts and inflationary pressures, but specific numbers were not provided [30][31] Question: What is the impact of winter storms on guidance for the quarter? - Management noted that winter storms caused some plants to be down, impacting shipments, but the mills managed to run through the storms effectively [32][34] Question: What gives comfort regarding reliability issues at the Massillon mill? - Management highlighted significant operational improvements made at the Massillon mill, which included extensive rebuilding efforts [39][40] Question: How are the Greif acquisition commitments being handled? - Management confirmed that they are discontinuing the purchase commitments made by Greif and moving forward with PCA's operational strategies [49] Question: What is the outlook for containerboard pricing and demand? - Management expects containerboard pricing to increase and demand to remain strong, with improvements noted across various customer segments [52][64]