未知机构：咖啡豆涨幅最大位于2024年全年参考瑞幸咖啡毛利率2024年同店下滑过-20260129

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Coffee Beans: The largest price increase is expected in 2024, with reference to Luckin Coffee's gross margin, which is projected to improve by nearly 3 percentage points during a same-store sales decline in 2024 [1][3] - Sugar: The main raw materials are white sugar and syrup, which can be substituted for each other. The raw materials are derived from sugarcane and corn [4] - Corn: Corn is classified as a strategic material in China, and its price is controlled, leading to stable and manageable prices for corn syrup products [5] - Dairy: The primary ingredients are non-dairy creamer and shelf-stable milk [2][6] Key Insights - Brand Strength: Do not underestimate the ability of leading brands to showcase their scale advantages [4] - Product Structure Adjustment: In extreme situations, companies can adjust their product structure to cope with price fluctuations. Dairy products are also essential goods, and their prices remain relatively stable [7] - Southeast Asia Recovery: Current tracking indicates that same-store sales in Southeast Asia have returned to normal levels in 2023, suggesting stable operations and no need for excessive concern [7] Market Dynamics - Profit Forecasts: Current profit forecasts do not include overly optimistic expectations for overseas contributions. Any excess contribution would be considered a positive surprise [8] - Industry Landscape Improvement: The industry structure has significantly improved, with the top 10 brands' market share expected to reach approximately 27% by 2025, an improvement of nearly 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by leading brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [8] - Stock Performance: The resilience of performance indicates that even if share reductions occur, it will not alter stock price trends [8] - Market Reactions: A recent reduction in holdings by a minor shareholder in Gu Ming led to a rebound in stock price, demonstrating market resilience [9] - Short Selling Concerns: Overemphasizing concerns about share unlocks plays into the hands of short sellers [10]