未知机构：东吴电子陈海进PCB观点重申重视M9升级确定性把握高端材料涨价弹性-20260129

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) materials industry, particularly in the context of advancements in computing power and high-speed interconnects [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - M9 Upgrade Certainty: The evolution of system architecture indicates that the iteration of interconnect bandwidth is the most certain technological trend driving the upgrade of computing power chips. The transition to 224Gbps and above SerDes is pushing competition towards optimized collaboration between computing power and interconnects [1]. - Performance Requirements: The new generation of Broadcom's switching chips, which align with the 224Gbps standard, necessitates a unified high-speed interconnect standard, imposing cross-generation performance requirements on PCB and CCL material systems. At 224Gbps, PCB insertion loss constraints are becoming stricter, requiring a low loss of 1dB at critical frequencies, which traditional M7/M8 materials cannot meet [1]. - Core Raw Materials: The M9 upgrade is highly certain, with core raw materials identified as hydrocarbon/polyphenylene ether resin, HVLP4/5 copper foil, and quartz cloth/NEZGlass [1]. Market Trends - Price Increase in CCL Industry: A systematic price increase in the copper-clad laminate industry is expected to begin in 2025 due to tightening supply and demand, indicating a mid-term industry trend rather than a short-term speculation [3]. - Rising Costs: The increase in upstream copper prices and the price hikes in high-end copper foil are driven by high-end demand and limited production capacity, leading to strong cost transmission [4]. - CCL Companies' Pricing Power: CCL companies have significant pricing power, allowing them to adjust prices to offset costs while also restoring gross margins for high-end products. The release of high-end PCB capacity in 2026 will increase demand elasticity for high-performance CCLs, while upstream material supply remains tight, concentrating profit elasticity among leading CCL and upstream material companies [5]. Related Companies - Companies mentioned include: - Philips and Dongcai Technology in the CCL industry [3]. - Nanya Technology and Shengyi Technology in the context of computing power and supply chain dynamics [6]. Risks - Supply Chain Volatility: There are risks associated with supply chain fluctuations, potential underperformance in downstream demand, and increasing industry competition [7].