中国电力：2025 年风光装机超预期；电力需求增长符合预期-China – Power-2025 More Wind and Solar Installation Than Expected; Power Demand Growth In-line

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Power sector, specifically highlighting the growth in wind and solar energy installations in 2025, which exceeded expectations [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Power Demand Growth: - National power consumption increased by 5.0% year-over-year (yoy) in 2025, aligning with the China Electricity Council's (CEC) projections [8]. - Power demand by sector showed varied growth: - Primary: 9.9% - Secondary: 3.7% - Tertiary: 8.2% - Residential: 6.3% - This represents a moderation compared to 2024's growth rates [2]. - Power Generation Statistics: - Total power generation rose by 2.2% yoy to 9,716 billion kWh in 2025. - Solar and wind power generation increased significantly, with solar up 24.4% and wind up 9.7%, contributing 17% of total generation (up from 14% in 2024) [3]. - Thermal generation decreased by 1.0% yoy to 6,295 billion kWh, while hydro and nuclear generation rose by 2.8% and 7.7% respectively [3]. - Capacity Additions: - China added 543 GW of power capacity in 2025, marking a 26.5% yoy increase. This included: - 315 GW of solar (up 13.7%) - 119 GW of wind (up 50.4%) - 95 GW of thermal, which accelerated from previous years [4]. - By the end of 2025, total installed power capacity reached 3,891 GW, with solar and wind comprising 47.3% of this total [4]. - Sector-Specific Drivers: - The major drivers for tertiary power consumption were identified as electric vehicle (EV) charging and software & IT services, which grew by 48.8% and 17.0% yoy respectively [8]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the growth in renewable energy installations was higher than previously forecasted, with cumulative solar and wind capacity reaching 1,202 GW and 640 GW respectively by the end of 2025 [8]. - The thermal power installation for 2025 was below the CEC's forecast of 106 GW, indicating a potential area of concern for future thermal energy investments [8]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the state of the power sector in China, particularly focusing on the growth of renewable energy sources and the overall demand for power.