全球大宗商品：金属形态的电力-不知不觉陷入 20 余年最大缺口-Global Commodities Electricity in the form of metal - sleepwalking into the biggest deficits in over 20 years - Jan 2026 update

Aluminium Industry Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - The aluminium industry is facing significant supply constraints, leading to potential deficits not seen in over 20 years, with a bullish outlook for prices in the medium to long term [4][5][20]. Key Points Price Forecasts and Investor Positioning - Aluminium prices have increased by 30% since June 2025, with a forecast of prices needing to sustain above US$3,500 per ton to incentivize the additional supply of over 10 million tons required by 2030 [4][9]. - Price scenarios include a bullish forecast of US$4,000 per ton and a bearish scenario of US$2,800 per ton [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's aluminium supply is no longer growing, with production growth expected to plateau by 2027 due to policy constraints and environmental regulations [26][35]. - Indonesia is emerging as a potential supplier, but its capacity growth is expected to be limited to approximately 0.7 million tons per year, which is insufficient to meet global demand [43][46]. - The market is projected to face significant deficits by 2027, necessitating higher prices or technological breakthroughs in scrap recovery to balance supply and demand [13][20]. Demand Drivers - Structural demand drivers for aluminium include power infrastructure, data centers, robotics, batteries, and solar energy [68][69]. - The rise of AI and data centers is expected to significantly increase power consumption, competing with aluminium smelting for energy resources [71][75]. - The production of humanoid and non-humanoid robots is projected to require substantial amounts of aluminium, lithium, and copper, further driving demand [76][83]. Investor Sentiment and Market Positioning - There has been a notable increase in speculative positioning in the LME aluminium market, reflecting investor confidence in a cyclical recovery in demand [9][10]. - Concerns regarding geopolitical uncertainties and potential economic shocks could present buying opportunities for investors [11]. Risks and Challenges - Downside risks include potential shocks from Japan's debt situation, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in global industrial activity [11]. - The aluminium market is less responsive to price increases compared to copper, which may lead to more pronounced deficits and stockout risks [8][23]. Secondary Supply and Recycling - Secondary aluminium supply growth is expected but will be insufficient at current price levels, with recovery rates needing to rise significantly to meet market demands [52][53]. - Historical data suggests that without strong price signals, breakthroughs in scrap recovery are unlikely [54]. Conclusion - The aluminium industry is at a critical juncture, with supply constraints and rising demand driven by technological advancements and decarbonization efforts. The outlook remains bullish, but significant risks and challenges must be navigated to achieve a balanced market.