中国广告脉搏调研_2026 年展望及新广告税政策的影响-China ad pulse check_ 2026 outlook and impacts from new ad tax policy

Summary of the Conference Call on China Internet Sector Industry Overview - Sector: China Internet Sector - Growth Forecast: Overall ad growth in China is expected to remain stable at 9.5% in 2026, slightly down from 9.6% in 2025, outperforming underlying consumption growth projected at 4.8% and 4.4% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][3] Key Drivers of Growth - Demand from Non-Cyclical Verticals: Significant growth is anticipated in sectors such as gaming (both app-based and mini-games), internet services (driven by short dramas and AI tools), and education (primarily hardware) [2] - Supply-Side Upgrades: Improvements in ad technology, particularly through AI, are expected to enhance ad efficiency and unlock new budgets, partially offsetting macroeconomic headwinds [2][3] Impact of New Ad Tax Policy - Policy Details: Effective from October 1, 2025, marketing expenses exceeding 15% of revenue (or 30% for cosmetics, healthcare, and non-alcoholic beverages) will no longer be tax-deductible, increasing the cost of sales and marketing (S&M) for advertisers [3] - Limited Negative Impact: The overall impact of the new tax policy is less severe than anticipated, with factors such as variations in enforcement and reclassification of costs helping to mitigate the effects [3] AI's Role in Advertising - Increased Ad Budgets: Post-2025, ad agencies reported a high single-digit to 10% increase in ad budgets on platforms with advanced AI capabilities [4] - Key Use Cases: AI is improving ROI by up to 10% through better targeting, ad material generation, and bidding strategies. Adoption of AI-powered platforms is also increasing, lowering entry barriers for SMEs [4] Company-Specific Insights - Tencent: Expected to maintain ad revenue growth of +18% YoY in Q4, supported by ad tech upgrades and improved connectivity within its ecosystem [8] - Bilibili: Advertiser perceptions are improving due to better collaboration with major platforms, leading to enhanced ad ROI [8] - Kuaishou: Noted for significant ad tech improvements, positioning it as a leader in ad efficiency [8] - Baidu: Continues to face revenue decline but is seeing increased contributions from AI-native products [8] Stock Recommendations - Preferred Stocks: The report favors Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou due to their strong growth drivers and positions in the ad tech landscape [9] Risks and Challenges - Competitive Landscape: The sector faces risks from evolving competition, fast-moving technology trends, and regulatory changes [13] - Profitability Concerns: Companies like JD.com are under scrutiny for low visibility on profitability and the impact of restructuring efforts [14] Conclusion - The China Internet sector is poised for stable growth driven by advancements in ad technology and demand from non-cyclical sectors, despite challenges posed by new tax policies and competitive pressures. Key players like Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while risks remain in the form of regulatory changes and market competition [2][3][9]