2026-01-29 10:59Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials sector, particularly the metals industry, highlighting a tight year for metals [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Cement Production: Expected output in December 2025 is projected at 144 million tons, reflecting a 6.6% YoY decline. The total output for 2025 is estimated at 1,693 million tons, down 6.9% YoY [6][6]. - Finished Steel: Anticipated output for December 2025 is 115 million tons, with a 3.8% YoY decrease. The total for 2025 is 1,446 million tons, showing a 3.1% YoY increase [6][6]. - Crude Steel: Projected output for December 2025 is 68 million tons, down 10.3% YoY, with a total of 961 million tons for 2025, a 4.4% YoY decline [6][6]. - Aluminum Production: December 2025 output is expected to be 4 million tons, a 3.0% YoY increase, with a total of 45 million tons for 2025, reflecting a 2.4% YoY increase [6][6]. - Copper Production: December 2025 output is projected at 440,000 tons, down 21.4% YoY, with a total of 5,320,000 tons for 2025, a 6% YoY decline [6][6]. - Automobile Production: December 2025 output is expected to be 3 million units, down 2.8% YoY, while total production for 2025 is projected at 35 million units, up 9.8% YoY [6][6]. - Electricity Generation: Expected to reach 859 billion KWh in December 2025, with a 0.1% YoY increase and a total of 9,716 billion KWh for 2025, reflecting a 2.2% YoY increase [6][6]. Policy Changes - The 2026 Trade-in Subsidy Policy for automobiles will see a reduction in the first tranche of fund allocation from Rmb 81 billion in 2025 to Rmb 62.5 billion in 2026 [8][8]. - Subsidies for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) will shift from a fixed amount to a percentage of the vehicle price, capped at Rmb 20,000 [8][8]. Real Estate Market Insights - Residential Sales Value: Expected to decline to Rmb 11,662 billion in 2023, down 6.5% YoY, with a recovery projected to Rmb 14,997 billion in 2025 [10][10]. - New Residential Starts: Anticipated to decrease to 1,989 million sqm in 2024, with a further decline to 954 million sqm in 2025 [10][10]. - Average Selling Price: Expected to stabilize around Rmb 10,442 per sqm in 2025, reflecting a 0.7% YoY increase [10][10]. Additional Insights - The mining sector is projected to see a 5.4% YoY increase in added value, while the ferrous metals sector is expected to grow by 0.7% YoY [6][6]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to grow by 4.8% YoY [6][6]. - Investment in Property: Expected to decline significantly, with a total of Rmb 420 billion in 2025, down 36.8% YoY [6][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals and real estate sectors in China.