Annaly(US:NLY)2026-01-29 15:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21 as of December 31, 2025 [19] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) rose marginally to $0.74, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [7][20] - Economic return for Q4 was 8.6%, bringing the full-year economic return to 20.2% [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion in market value, an increase of nearly $6 billion quarter-over-quarter and $22 billion year-over-year [8] - The residential credit portfolio reached $8 billion in market value, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, representing approximately 19% of the firm's capital [10] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio ended the fourth quarter at $3.8 billion in market value, a nearly $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed income markets exhibited strong performance, contributing to the highest total return in the U.S. aggregate bond index since 2020 [5] - The yield curve steepened during the quarter as short-term yields fell while long-term yields rose modestly [5] - Swap spreads continued to widen, supported by a shift from Quantitative Tightening to balance sheet expansion by the Fed [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase its allocation to residential credit and MSR, targeting a long-term weighting of 50% agency, 30% residential credit, and 20% MSR [46][47] - The diversified housing finance model is expected to continue performing well for shareholders, with a focus on opportunistic investments in the current coupon MSR market [18] - The company remains well-positioned to benefit from growth in the non-QM market and the broader non-agency market [13][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains solid, with the labor market showing signs of softness but limited layoffs [4] - The company anticipates continued strong results from its investment strategies in 2026, supported by favorable market conditions [16][18] - Risks include global fiscal challenges and potential changes in housing policy that could impact the agency markets [39][40] Other Important Information - The company raised $560 million of common equity through its ATM in Q4, bringing total equity raised in 2025 to $2.9 billion [8] - The economic leverage ratio remained low at 5.6x, down from the previous quarter [22] - Total assets available for financing reached approximately $9.4 billion, providing significant liquidity and flexibility [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on mark-to-market book values - The book value was up 4%, inclusive of the dividend accrual, with a slight increase noted [25] Question: Portfolio returns and comfort level with the dividend in 2026 - The company expects mid-teens returns and feels confident about the durability of the swaps market as a hedge [26] Question: Insights on the MSR portfolio and current coupon MSR - The company is now active in the MSR exchange platforms and is well-positioned to manage recapture effectively [27][29] Question: Impact of potential G-fee cuts on prepayment environment - A G-fee cut on purchase loans is seen as appropriate, but broad cuts could negatively impact the MBS market [31] Question: Factors that could change the current low-risk environment - Risks include global fiscal issues and asset market euphoria, which could lead to corrections [39] Question: Attractiveness of buying lower-coupon MBS - The valuation on low-coupon MBS is tight, and better ways to manage risk are available [41] Question: Likelihood of GSE portfolio caps being increased - The current capacity is far from hitting caps, and future increases remain uncertain [48]