National Fuel Gas pany(NFG) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.06 for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, aligning with expectations [4] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% compared to the prior year, driven by higher production and natural gas prices [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The integrated upstream and gathering business saw net production of 109 billion cubic feet (BCF), a 12% increase over the first quarter of fiscal 2025 [23] - The regulated businesses performed strongly due to a three-year rate settlement at the New York utility and a pipeline modernization tracker at the Pennsylvania utility [5][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas prices have shown significant volatility, with the February contract settling at nearly $7.50, a 140% increase from two weeks prior [15] - The company expects natural gas prices to remain in the $3-$5 range, influenced by structural demand from LNG exports and limited new infrastructure [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and growth, with plans to expand Seneca's inventory and improve capital efficiency [6] - The Tioga Pathway project and shipping port lateral project are progressing well, with additional expansion opportunities anticipated [7] - The company is pursuing an acquisition of CenterPoint's Ohio LDC, expected to close in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026, which will enhance its regulated business [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the natural gas outlook, citing all-time high demand and bipartisan support for an all-of-the-above energy approach [5] - The company reaffirmed its adjusted EPS guidance range of $7.60-$8.10 for fiscal 2026, projecting a 14% growth over the previous year [22] - Management noted that the regulatory environment in Ohio is improving, which could facilitate future projects [21] Other Important Information - The company has a strong investment-grade balance sheet and expects to approach a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.75 times by the end of fiscal 2026 [17] - The company has executed a ten-year agreement to provide MIQ-certified methane reduction certificates, reinforcing its commitment to sustainability [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Ability to take advantage of local price spikes - The company has a marketing portfolio that allows it to keep some gas available to take advantage of high local prices during cold weather [32][33] Question: Future growth projects in the pipeline business - Management indicated that there are additional opportunities for pipeline projects beyond the Tioga Pathway, given the favorable location of their pipelines [34][36] Question: Impact of federal permitting reform on pipeline projects - Management believes that permitting reform would expedite project development but does not expect it to change their overall view on pipeline development [39] Question: DNC costs of Seneca Gen 4 design - The Gen 4 design incurs additional costs due to wider inner well spacing and increased prop loading, estimated at $150-$175 per foot [40][41] Question: Optimal production growth rate - The company aims for a mid-single digit growth rate, contingent on interstate pipeline capacity and market conditions [47][49] Question: Co-development strategy for Upper Utica - The company is currently testing co-development strategies for Upper and Lower Utica, with plans to assess data from ongoing tests [62][64] Question: Incremental takeaway capacity from the basin - Management noted ongoing projects that will enhance takeaway capacity from the basin, which is crucial for reducing price volatility [73][75]