Tractor Supply(TSCO) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, net sales increased by 3.3% to $3.9 billion, with comparable store sales rising by 0.3% driven by modest growth in average ticket [10][12] - Diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.43, reflecting modest sales growth, elevated promotional activity, and continued investment in strategic initiatives [10][12] - For the full year 2025, net sales rose by 4.3% to $15.5 billion, with diluted EPS at $2.06 [12][13] - Gross margin for Q4 declined approximately 10 basis points year-over-year, while full-year gross margin expanded by 16 basis points [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumable, Usable, and Edible categories showed low- to mid-single-digit comparable growth, led by livestock, equine, and poultry supplies [11] - Big-ticket categories, excluding emergency response, experienced a decline in performance, contributing to high single-digit declines [11][12] - Digital business delivered high single-digit growth for the year, reflecting improvements in personalization and conversion [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer engagement remained healthy, with identified customer counts increasing by approximately 2% [11] - The South Atlantic region saw mid-single-digit declines, primarily due to the absence of storm activity compared to the previous year [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its "Life Out Here 2030" strategy, emphasizing new store growth, digital capabilities, and supply chain improvements [15][37] - Plans for 2026 include opening 100 new stores and expanding direct sales and final mile delivery capabilities [25][36] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation while investing in growth initiatives [26][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a shift in consumer spending, with essential categories remaining resilient while discretionary demand moderated [8][10] - The broader economic environment remains uncertain, with mixed signals regarding consumer sentiment and spending [17] - For 2026, the company expects total sales growth in the range of 4%-6% and comp sales growth of 1%-3% [22][23] Other Important Information - The company opened 99 new stores in 2025 and plans to continue this trend in 2026 [14][15] - The digital business is expected to scale further, with ongoing investments in AI to improve forecasting and inventory flow [14][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Gross margin expectations for 2026 - Management expects gross margin expansion in 2026, particularly in the second half, but does not anticipate declines in the first half [42] Question: Trends in first quarter sales - Management indicated that the first quarter is tracking above plan, with optimism due to tax refunds and seasonal demand [44][47] Question: Discretionary spending weakness - Management believes the weakness in discretionary spending was transitory and specific to Q4, with expectations for improvement in 2026 [51][53] Question: Tariff costs and pricing management - Management anticipates similar tariff impacts in 2026 as in the second half of 2025, with effective pricing management to offset costs [56][57] Question: Conditions for restoring comp growth - Management remains committed to returning to a 3%-5% comp sales growth trajectory, supported by strategic investments and operational improvements [60][62] Question: Direct sales model profitability - The direct sales initiative is showing strong momentum, with plans to double the sales specialist count and target $50 million in sales for 2026 [64][66]