投资者：AI 半导体-TPU、GPU 及存储领域持续发力-Investor Presentation-AI Semi Further Strength in TPU, GPU and Memory

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on AI Semi Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Semiconductor industry, particularly AI semiconductors, including TPU, GPU, and memory sectors [6][9] - Market Outlook: Attractive industry view for Greater China Technology Semiconductors [2] Core Insights - Top Investment Ideas: - Overweight (OW): TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing [6] - Memory Sector: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix [6] - Non-AI Focus: Realtek, USI in smartphone/glasses sector [6] - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Tech Inflation: Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are expected to create margin headwinds for chip designers into 2026 [6] - AI Cannibalization: AI is expected to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness and prioritization of AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors [6] - Tech Diffusion: AI semiconductor demand is reaccelerating due to generative AI, expanding into various verticals like robotics and AI glasses [6] - China AI Demand: DeepSeek is driving inferencing AI demand, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPUs [6] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Valuation Comparison: - TSMC's current price is 1,805.0 TWD with a target of 2,088.0 TWD, indicating a 16% upside [7] - UMC's current price is 68.4 TWD with a target of 52.5 TWD, indicating a 23% downside [7] - SMIC's current price is 76.7 HKD with a target of 80.0 HKD, indicating a 4% upside [7] - P/E Ratios: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 27.2 in 2025 to 16.1 in 2027 [7] - UMC's P/E ratio is projected to remain stable around 20.8 to 18.0 from 2025 to 2027 [7] Market Dynamics - Semi Cycle: AI semiconductors are expected to outperform broader semiconductor growth, with non-AI semiconductor growth projected at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [12] - Inventory Trends: A decrease in inventory days historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index [15] - Memory Prices: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive view on the industry [16] Additional Insights - Capex Trends: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a 65% year-over-year increase noted in 3Q25 [52] - AI Semiconductor Market Size: The global semiconductor market size is projected to reach US$1 trillion by 2030, with cloud AI semiconductor total addressable market (TAM) expected to grow to US$235 billion by 2025 [85][91] - NVIDIA's Influence: NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue is a significant driver of growth in the semiconductor sector, with implications for other players in the market [12][19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the investor presentation, highlighting the semiconductor industry's current landscape, investment opportunities, and financial metrics.