印度经济：2026 财年经济调查报告- 核心要点-India Economics-Economic Survey F2026

Key Takeaways from the Economic Survey F2025-26 Industry Overview - Country: India - Focus: Economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation, external stability, and sectoral performance Core Insights 1. Growth Expectations: - Real GDP growth is projected at 7.4% YoY for F2026 and between 6.8% and 7.2% YoY for F2027. Domestic demand is expected to support this growth despite global uncertainties [9][10] - The cumulative impact of recent policy reforms has lifted the economy's medium-term growth potential closer to 7% [11] 2. Inflation Management: - Headline CPI has softened due to a downturn in food prices, with core inflation hovering around 4%. The survey anticipates inflation to remain anchored within manageable ranges, supported by strong agricultural output and stable global commodity prices [9][18] 3. External Stability: - India maintains robust external macro stability, with strong services exports and remittances supporting the current account. The capital account has attracted substantial gross FDI, indicating resilience amid global volatility [19][20][22] 4. Fiscal Policy: - The fiscal deficit is expected to be 4.2% of GDP for F2027, with a commitment to a transparent medium-term debt glide path of 50% of GDP ±1ppt by F2031. The government emphasizes a calibrated fiscal strategy that combines consolidation with sustained public investment [2][23] Sectoral Insights 1. Agriculture: - Growth in agriculture is critical for food security and livelihoods. Allied activities like horticulture and dairy are key contributors. Policy measures to improve infrastructure and productivity are essential [11] 2. Industry: - Transition to higher-value manufacturing is gaining traction, supported by ongoing capital expenditure and reforms like the PLI scheme. However, challenges such as high logistical costs and regulatory complexity persist [12][13] 3. Infrastructure: - Significant investments in infrastructure are crucial for growth and productivity. Initiatives like PM GatiShakti and the National Logistics Policy aim to enhance logistical coordination and reduce transaction costs [14] 4. Services: - The services sector is a major driver of economic growth and employment, with a focus on high-value, technology-driven segments. Tailored reforms are necessary to maintain competitiveness [15] Additional Considerations - Medium-term Growth Path: - Achieving inclusive growth is linked to augmenting productive capacity and institutional transformation, aligning with the long-term vision of "Viksit Bharat" by 2047 [27][28] - State Finances: - State governments are encouraged to improve revenue mobilization and spending composition, with a focus on conditional cash transfers linked to verifiable actions to avoid widening deficits [24][25][26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Economic Survey F2025-26, highlighting India's growth trajectory, fiscal strategies, and sectoral developments while addressing potential risks and challenges.