宏观速览：最新观点与展望-Macro at a Glance_ Latest views and forecasts

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic forecasts and trends affecting global markets, particularly focusing on GDP growth and inflation rates across various regions including the US, Euro area, and China [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Global GDP Growth: Expected to be 2.9% year-over-year in 2026, driven by fading US tariffs and rising real income growth [4][5]. - US Economic Outlook: Anticipated real GDP growth of 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, supported by tax cuts and easing financial conditions, despite trade policy uncertainties [4][5]. - Inflation Trends: Core PCE inflation in the US is projected to decline to 2.1% year-over-year by the end of 2026, as tariff impacts diminish and wage/shelter inflation trends improve [4][5]. - Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed is expected to implement two 25 basis point cuts in 2026, leading to a terminal rate range of 3-3.25% [4][5]. - Euro Area Growth: Projected real GDP growth of 1.2% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation expected to decline to 1.8% due to lower energy prices and a stronger Euro [4][5]. - China's Economic Performance: Forecasted real GDP growth of 4.8% year-over-year in 2026, bolstered by resilient export growth and government policy easing, despite sluggish domestic demand [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including US-China relations and developments in Venezuela and the Middle East, pose significant risks to economic stability [5]. - Commodity Price Forecasts: LME aluminum price forecasts have been raised to $3150/$2965/$2435 per metric ton for 3/6/12 months, reflecting a balanced global market that supports high prices without rapid production increases [1]. - Unemployment Rates: The unemployment rate in the US is expected to stabilize at 4.5% by the end of 2026 [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic outlook and potential investment implications across various regions and sectors.