Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial conditions improved during Q4 2025, supported by two Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong economic growth, leading to an 8% economic return for the quarter and a 3.7% increase in book value per common share to $8.72 [3][5][19] - The company's portfolio at year-end was valued at $6.3 billion, with $5.4 billion in Agency mortgages and $900 million in Agency CMBS [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency RMBS portfolio increased by 11% quarter over quarter, focusing on 5% and 5.5% coupons, while the allocation in 6% and 6.5% coupons declined due to paydowns [14][15] - Agency CMBS risk premiums remained largely unchanged, with no new purchases made during the quarter, but the sector continues to provide benefits through prepayment protection and fixed maturities [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the year at 4.17%, with a steepening yield curve benefiting longer-term investments [8][9] - Agency mortgages delivered strong performance in 2025, driven by reduced interest rate volatility and increased demand from GSEs [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains positive on Agency mortgages, viewing conditions as favorable due to lower interest rate volatility and expectations for broadening demand [6][21] - The strategy includes selectively accessing the ATM for capital raising when conditions are favorable, with a focus on maintaining a robust capital structure [36][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while near-term risks are balanced, the current environment of low volatility in interest rates and spreads is expected to provide a positive backdrop for agency mortgages over the long term [21] - The conclusion of quantitative tightening and the announcement of T-bill purchases by the Fed have solidified funding markets, serving as a tailwind for the company's strategy [20][21] Other Important Information - The liquidity position remains strong, with $453 million in unrestricted cash and unencumbered assets [6] - The company modestly increased leverage to 7 times, consistent with the constructive investment environment [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company approaching leverage levels post the tightening? - The company increased leverage slightly in Q4, reflecting a positive environment, and remains comfortable with current levels despite tighter spreads [25] Question: Have there been any surprises in prepayment reports for higher coupons? - No significant surprises were noted; prepayment speeds increased in higher coupons but were less impacted due to prepayment protection [27] Question: Is the decision on the ATM solely based on stock price? - The decision is based on a combination of price to book and the availability of accretive investment opportunities [40] Question: What would trigger a tighter spread range for MBS? - An increase in the GSEs' caps or a notable increase in the pace of purchases could signal a tighter spread range [46] Question: How should investors think about book value sensitivity to spread changes? - The magnitude of change in book value to spread changes remains consistent, but expectations for further spread tightening are reduced [50]