闪迪公司：指引强劲超最乐观预期，供应紧张支撑业绩 —— 买入

Summary of SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) - Industry: NAND Flash Memory Key Financial Highlights - Quarterly Revenue: Reported revenue of $3.03 billion, significantly exceeding Goldman Sachs (GS) estimate of $2.70 billion and the Street estimate of $2.69 billion [2] - Gross Margin: Achieved a gross margin of 51.1%, well above GS's expectation of 43.0% and the Street's 42.3% [2] - Non-GAAP EPS: Reported non-GAAP EPS of $6.20, surpassing GS's estimate of $3.66 and the Street's $3.55 [2] Guidance and Expectations - 1Q Guidance: SanDisk guided 1Q revenue to $4.60 billion at the midpoint, significantly higher than GS's $2.62 billion and the Street's $3.00 billion [6] - Gross Margin Guidance: Expected gross margin of 66.0%, again above GS's 44.0% and the Street's 47.2% [6] - Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: Guidance for non-GAAP EPS is between $12.00 and $14.00, with a midpoint of $13.00, far exceeding GS's $3.48 and the Street's $5.42 [6] Market Dynamics - NAND Supply Conditions: The NAND industry is expected to remain undersupplied due to continued supply-side prudence, which is anticipated to drive gross margin expansion [4] - Enterprise Market Growth: Expectations for the enterprise market are now in the high-60% bit growth level for 2026, indicating strong demand [4] - eSSD Market Share: SanDisk has qualified its TLC enterprise drive offering with a second hyperscaler customer, suggesting potential for significant market share gains in the eSSD segment [4][5] Investment Outlook - Rating: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SanDisk [8] - Price Target: The 12-month price target has been raised to $700 from $320, based on a 22X P/E multiple applied to a normalized EPS estimate of $32.00 [8] - Risks: Key downside risks include the failure of NAND recovery, competition from YMTC, and SanDisk's ability to gain traction in the eSSD market [8] Estimate Changes - EPS Estimates: EPS estimates have been increased by an average of approximately 200% to reflect higher revenue and margin assumptions due to tight supply conditions [7] Additional Insights - Quarterly Performance: The quarterly results were significantly above market expectations, indicating strong operational performance and market positioning [1] - Future Projections: The combination of tight supply and accelerating demand is expected to materially increase Street numbers over the next 12 months [1] This summary encapsulates the key points from the SanDisk conference call, highlighting the company's strong financial performance, optimistic guidance, and the favorable market conditions in the NAND industry.