美联储监测：凯文・沃什被提名美联储主席-Federal Reserve Monitor-Kevin Warsh Nominated for Fed Chair

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy, particularly focusing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair. Core Insights and Arguments - Rate Cuts Expectation: The nomination of Kevin Warsh does not alter the expectation for two additional rate cuts in the second half of 2026, driven by disinflation [5][7][9] - Policy Framework Shift: Any significant changes in the Fed's policy framework are anticipated to occur gradually through balance sheet policy rather than through interest rate adjustments [5][7][8] - Volatility in Macro Markets: A Federal Reserve led by Warsh is expected to allow for higher volatility and greater signaling qualities in macro markets, potentially steepening the yield curve due to a smaller Fed footprint [5][19][20] - Balance Sheet Critique: Warsh has criticized the Fed's balance sheet as "bloated" and advocates for a reduction to mitigate inflation risks and market distortions [10][12][13] - Interest Rate Policy: Warsh's views suggest that lower interest rates should accompany a smaller balance sheet, which he believes would enhance price stability and credit transmission [11][12] - Regulatory Changes: Warsh's preference for less regulation could positively impact MBS investors, particularly if there are changes to the Basel Endgame proposal that would lower risk weights for loans [33] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - Investor Sentiment: Surveys indicate that individual investors are more concerned about inflation than Fed policy, suggesting that the Fed's actions may not be a primary focus for retail investors [35][36] - MBS Market Impact: The likelihood of the Fed ending MBS run-off has decreased, and the bar for restarting QE, especially in MBS, is now higher [34] - Future Fed Actions: Speculation about the Fed's approach could influence the shape of the yield curve and swap spread curve until Warsh's intentions are publicly clarified [22][29] - Communication Strategy: A Warsh-led Fed may adopt fewer communications with the public, which could lead to more market-driven assessments of economic data and policy reactions [21][24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's future under Kevin Warsh's potential leadership, focusing on monetary policy, market implications, and investor sentiment.