中国地产：1 月房企销售额跌幅仍较大；预计一季度将进一步下滑-China Property-Developers‘ Sales Decline Remained Deep in January; We Expect Further Drop in 1Q

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically the performance of major property developers in January 2026 and expectations for the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - Contracted sales for the 25 major developers tracked fell 32% year-on-year (y-y) in January 2026, despite a low base due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect [1][2]. - The top 50 and top 100 developers experienced declines of 26% and 29% y-y, respectively, in January, compared to -22% and -29% in December [2]. Divergence in Developer Performance - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) outperformed other developers with milder declines. Notable performers included: - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI): +20% y-y - Jinmao: +14% y-y - CR Land: +0.4% y-y - Conversely, developers like Sunac, Shimao, CIFI, Midea RE, and GZ R&F reported declines exceeding 50% y-y [3]. Market Outlook - The physical property market is expected to continue its downtrend in 2026-27, with projected declines of 8% and 6% y-y in secondary home prices [4]. - A meaningful nationwide housing policy is anticipated to remain muted in the coming months, contributing to fragile buyer sentiment and increased inventory [4]. Investment Sentiment - Recent sentiment-driven outperformance in the China property industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of a sector pullback as results season approaches [5]. - The focus remains on quality names with credible self-help stories, such as: - CR Land (1109.HK) - Seazen (601155.SS) - C&D International (1908.HK), which is seen as a consolidator in the residential market with optimized landbanks [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of continued challenges for developers, particularly those with weaker brand recognition and fewer saleable resources [5][6].