Alliance Resource Partners(US:ARLP)2026-02-02 16:02Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $191.1 million, a 54.1% increase from Q4 2024 and a 2.8% increase sequentially [4] - Net income attributable to ARLP in Q4 2025 was $82.7 million, or $0.64 per unit, compared to $16.3 million, or $0.12 per unit, in Q4 2024 [4] - Total revenues for Q4 2025 were $535.5 million, down from $590.1 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower coal sales and transportation revenues [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average coal sales price per ton in Q4 2025 was $57.57, a 4% decrease year-over-year and a 2.1% decrease sequentially [6] - Total coal production in Q4 2025 was 8.2 million tons, up from 6.9 million tons in Q4 2024, while coal sales volumes were 8.1 million tons, down from 8.4 million tons in Q4 2024 [6] - In the Illinois Basin, coal sales volumes were 6.5 million tons in Q4 2025, down approximately 2% compared to both Q4 2024 and the sequential quarter [7] - In the Appalachia region, coal sales volumes were 1.7 million tons in Q4 2025, down from 1.8 million tons in Q4 2024 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The oil and gas royalty segment achieved total revenue of $56.8 million in Q4 2025, up 17.2% year-over-year [11] - BOE volumes in the oil and gas royalty segment increased 20.2% year-over-year and 10% sequentially [11] - Total liquidity as of December 31, 2025, was $518.5 million, including $71.2 million in cash and cash equivalents [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company anticipates overall coal sales volumes for 2026 to increase to 33.75-35.25 million tons, despite reduced sales volumes at the Mettiki mine [14] - Contracting activity for 2026 is robust, with over 93% of expected volumes already committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance [14] - The company remains committed to investing in its oil and gas royalties business and pursuing disciplined growth in this segment [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted strong performance in the Illinois Basin and robust customer demand, with utilities opting for longer-term agreements [19] - The company noted that coal's value to the grid is increasingly recognized, especially during extreme weather events [26] - Management expects demand fundamentals to strengthen, driven by higher natural gas prices and load growth from data centers and U.S. manufacturing [25] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 2025 with 1.1 million tons of coal inventory, an increase compared to previous quarters [10] - The anticipated impact of reduced sales volumes at Mettiki is reflected in the 2026 guidance, with potential impairment evaluations planned for Q1 2026 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does it take to get to the high or low end of your price per ton guidance? - Management indicated that most remaining tons to be sold are in the Illinois Basin, with potential upside depending on customer contract flexibilities [33] Question: What would it take for Alliance to increase production? - Management stated that no new units are planned, but productivity improvements are expected to drive growth [39] Question: How to model equity method investments going forward? - Management suggested a lower run rate of around $3 million per quarter for equity investment income moving forward [41] Question: How should we think about quarterly sales cadence in 2026? - Management expects Q1 2026 to be the lowest sales quarter, with gradual improvement anticipated in subsequent quarters [47] Question: How do you expect export sales to compare to 2025 levels? - Management noted that export sales are limited, focusing primarily on domestic customers due to higher netbacks [50]