可控核聚变行业观点更新
2026-02-03 02:05

Summary of Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is recognized as a potential ultimate energy source due to its high energy release, easy access to reactants, and low radioactive waste, making it a focal point of technological competition among major countries [1][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments - Q Value as a Key Indicator: The current critical indicator for the development of controlled nuclear fusion technology is the Q value, which measures the ratio of energy produced by the fusion reaction to the energy input required to sustain the reaction. Achieving a Q value greater than 1 is essential for energy balance, while a Q value greater than 10 is necessary for commercialization [1][5]. - Global Investments and Plans: Major countries, including China, the EU, the US, Japan, Russia, and India, are increasing their policy support and financial investments in the controlled nuclear fusion sector. For instance, the US company Helion plans to build the world's first fusion power plant by 2028, and China has included controlled nuclear fusion in its "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][6]. - Domestic Development Transition: The domestic controlled nuclear fusion sector is transitioning from scientific feasibility verification to engineering feasibility verification. From 2025 to 2027, approximately 60 billion RMB will be invested in experimental reactors, while from 2027 to 2035, commercial demonstration reactors will be the focus, with each project expected to require an investment of 80 to 100 billion RMB [1][8]. - Recent Capital Expenditure Trends: There has been a significant acceleration in capital expenditures, particularly for key projects such as BEST, Chengdu, and Nanchang. The bidding activities for these projects are increasing, indicating a ramp-up in development [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - Investment Focus Areas: Investors are advised to focus on high-value segments of the nuclear fusion supply chain, including superconducting materials, core equipment and components (like magnets and vacuum chambers), and power and heating systems. The successful advancement of experimental reactor construction and order confirmations are critical for investment decisions [1][4][12]. - Industry Chain Development: The nuclear fusion industry chain includes upstream raw materials, midstream core components, and downstream applications. Government capital expenditures are primarily concentrated in the upstream and midstream segments, which are now entering the order fulfillment phase [1][10]. - Emerging Technologies: The development of new technologies, such as high-temperature superconductors, is expected to significantly impact the industry. The supply-demand tension in high-temperature superconducting materials presents investment opportunities in leading companies [1][12]. - Cost Breakdown: In the Tokamak technology path, the cost distribution is approximately 28%-30% for magnets and superconducting materials, 15% for core components, and around 40% for heating systems and power supply [1][11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the controlled nuclear fusion industry, highlighting its potential, current developments, and investment opportunities.