SK海力士_买入评级_AI 推动基本面与盈利基准线迎新格局

Summary of SK Hynix Conference Call Company Overview - Company: SK Hynix (Ticker: 000660 KP) - Industry: Semiconductors Key Financial Results - 4Q Results: - Operating profit: KRW 19 trillion, up 68% quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) and 8% higher than estimates [1] - Sales: KRW 33 trillion, up 34% q-o-q and 66% year-over-year (y-o-y) [1] - NAND shipments and average selling prices (ASPs) increased by 9% and 29% respectively [1] - DRAM ASP rose by 24% q-o-q, contributing to improved earnings [1] Future Projections - 2026 Operating Profit: Expected to triple to KRW 151 trillion, a 219% increase y-o-y [2] - 1Q 2026 Estimates: Operating profit projected at KRW 28 trillion (+45% q-o-q) with sales of KRW 41 trillion (+25% q-o-q) [2] - NAND Margins: Expected to rise to 45% in 4Q 2026 from 9% in 2025 due to cost leadership and technology transitions [2] Market Dynamics - NAND Demand Surge: Shift from training to inference in AI applications is driving memory demand, leading to a shortage [3] - Market Share: SK Hynix holds a 27% market share in the NAND market as of 3Q 2025 [3] - Supercycle Prediction: Anticipated 4-5 year upcycle in the DRAM market, with sales projected to reach USD 454 billion by 2027, a 775% increase from 2023 [4] Investment Recommendations - Target Price: Increased to KRW 1.30 million from KRW 1.05 million, reflecting robust demand and price increases [5] - Risks: Potential risks include higher US interest rates affecting investment financing and aggressive capacity expansions by competitors [5] Financial Metrics - Market Capitalization: KRW 626.81 trillion (approximately USD 438.21 billion) [8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS for 2026 is KRW 169,188.59, a 24.6% increase from previous estimates [9] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to be 65.9% in 2026 [15] Additional Insights - Capex Growth: Capex estimates for 2026 and 2027 raised by 13% and 19% respectively due to stronger investments in leading-edge technology [81] - eSSD Demand: Expected to account for 40% of total NAND demand by 2027, up from 18% in 2023 [56] - AI Server Growth: AI servers projected to account for 62% of total eSSD demand by 2027 [58] This summary encapsulates the key points from the SK Hynix conference call, highlighting the company's strong financial performance, future growth prospects, and market dynamics within the semiconductor industry.