2026-02-03 02:06Summary of Global Hotels & Leisure Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of current dollar weakness on the Global Hotels & Leisure industry, particularly focusing on companies with significant international revenue exposure and those with costs denominated in different currencies. Key Points Winners from Dollar Weakness 1. Booking Holdings (BKNG): - Beneficiary of dollar weakness with nearly 80% of room nights outside the US, particularly benefiting from strong Euro against the USD [2][12] - Earnings estimates increased by 2-3% due to favorable FX impact [1] 2. Airbnb (ABNB): - 55% of revenues earned outside the US, with 33% exposure to Europe and 11% each to APAC and LATAM, leading to a positive earnings tailwind from USD weakness [3][12] - Earnings estimates raised by 2-3% [1] 3. Carnival Corporation (CCL): - 45% of revenues generated outside the US, primarily in Europe, benefiting from favorable currency translation [3][12] - Earnings estimates increased by 2-3% [1] 4. Other Beneficiaries: - Hilton, Marriott, IHG, and Royal Caribbean (RCL) will also see benefits, but to a lesser extent due to limited non-USD exposure [3] Losers from Dollar Weakness 1. Accor: - Despite only 3% of room exposure in the US, approximately 35% of EBITDA is generated in USD while reporting in EUR, leading to a negative impact from dollar weakness [4][14] - Earnings estimates trimmed by ~3% [1] 2. Hyatt: - Managed resorts in the Mexican Caribbean earn revenues in USD but have costs in Mexican Pesos, leading to margin compression due to dollar weakness [5][14] - Incentive management fees are sensitive to USD/MXN exchange rates, resulting in a 3-4% headwind to earnings for 2026-2027 [5][15] Financial Implications - The overall impact of dollar weakness is expected to create a material earnings tailwind for US-denominated stocks with high non-US revenue exposure, while negatively affecting those with significant USD costs and EUR-denominated earnings [1][11] - The dollar is down MSD-high teens year-over-year against major currencies, which will have a significant impact on the earnings of companies in the travel sector [9] Investment Ratings - Despite the FX impacts, the investment ratings remain unchanged with Outperform ratings for Marriott, Hyatt, Accor, Melia, Royal Caribbean, and Airbnb [8] Additional Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of currency exposure in the hospitality sector, emphasizing that companies with significant international operations are better positioned to benefit from a weaker dollar [11][20] - The sensitivity of earnings to currency fluctuations is a critical factor for investors to consider when evaluating these companies [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the impact of dollar weakness on the Global Hotels & Leisure industry, identifying both winners and losers, and providing a financial outlook for the affected companies.