全球经济综述_2026 年 1 月 30 日-Global Economics Wrap-Up_ January 30, 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic outlook for the US, Euro area, and Asia/EM regions, focusing on monetary policy, inflation, and GDP growth forecasts. Core Points and Arguments US Economic Outlook - The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% in a split decision of 10-2, aligning with consensus expectations [4] - Anticipation of two 25 basis point cuts in June and September, potentially lowering the rate to 3-3.25% [5] - Better growth news and signs of labor market stabilization suggest the FOMC is positioned to hold rates steady while assessing incoming data [5] - Q4 GDP tracking estimate was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to +2.0%, influenced by a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders and a widening trade deficit [5] Euro Area Economic Outlook - Euro area real GDP increased by 0.3% in Q4, surpassing expectations [6] - Inflation in January was slightly above expectations in Spain (2.5% YoY) and Germany (2.13% YoY), leading to an upgrade in the Euro area headline inflation forecast to 1.77% YoY [6] - The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% for the foreseeable future, with no major changes anticipated in the upcoming meeting [6] Asia/EM Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, with expectations for a rate hike in July [10] - The Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, signaling stability until at least the second half of 2027 [8] - Client sentiment from a Global Macro Conference indicated increased optimism about the global economy, with a preference for EM equities, particularly in China and Korea/Taiwan [8] Additional Important Insights - The potential removal of US tariffs could lead to significant changes in trade flows and consumer prices, as evidenced by the experience in Canada [4] - The labor market remains a critical uncertainty in the economic outlook, with expected net job losses in AI-exposed industries [5] - Geopolitical developments are ranked as the highest risk concern among clients [10] Conclusion - The economic outlook across the US, Euro area, and Asia/EM regions shows cautious optimism, with central banks maintaining current rates while monitoring inflation and growth indicators. The potential for tariff changes and labor market dynamics are key factors to watch in the coming months.