ABF 载板与覆铜板_AI 驱动下供需前景向好-ABF substrate & CCL_ supply_demand outlook remains benign driven by AI

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: ABF substrate and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) within the Technology sector in the Asia-Pacific region - Key Drivers: The demand outlook is primarily driven by advancements in AI technology, which is expected to significantly influence supply and demand dynamics in the substrate market ABF Substrate Supply/Demand Outlook - Supply/Demand Model Update: - Expected undersupply of 1% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, revised from previous estimates of 1% and 6% undersupply respectively [2] - Anticipated oversupply of 5% in 2025, down from 6% [11][13] - Demand Growth: - Demand for substrates from AI accelerators projected to grow by over 50% CAGR towards 2027, up from approximately 40% [2] - Demand mix for AI accelerators expected to reach 38% in 2026 and 48% in 2027, compared to 25% in 2025 [2] CCL Market Developments - Expansion Plans: - Suppliers like EMC and Shengyi are expanding capacity, with Shengyi investing CNY 4.5 billion in Guangdong [3] - EMC is expected to gain market share in TPU, with potential for a 50-60% allocation if volume forecasts are revised upwards [3] - Revenue Expectations: - Record-high revenue anticipated for EMC and TUC in Q1 2026, attributed to new capacity and price hikes [3] Company Recommendations - Buy Ratings: - Reiterated Buy ratings for Unimicron, NYPCB, EMC, and TUC due to their higher exposure to AI server demand [4] - Underperform Ratings: - Underperform ratings for Kinsus and Shengyi due to stretched valuations [4] - Price Objective Changes: - Price objectives raised for Unimicron (NT$450), EMC (NT$2300), TUC (NT$665), and Shengyi (CNY 52) [8] Financial Adjustments - Earnings Estimates: - Unimicron's 2027E EPS raised by 10% reflecting a stronger pricing outlook and tighter supply/demand situation [23] - EMC's operating profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 raised by 2% and 5% respectively due to stronger revenue growth assumptions [27] Capacity Breakdown - Market Leaders: - Ibiden (22%) and Unimicron (18%) are the leading suppliers in terms of capacity for ABF substrates [21][22] Important Upcoming Events - Watch for Updates: - Commentary from Ibiden and AT&S on February 3, 2026, and Toppan on February 13, 2026, will be significant following upcoming results releases [2] Conclusion - The ABF substrate and CCL markets are poised for growth driven by AI advancements, with specific companies positioned favorably for this trend. Adjustments in earnings estimates reflect a positive outlook, while capacity expansions indicate a proactive approach to meet increasing demand.