中国材料行业_2026 实地需求监测- 铝库存与消费-China Materials_ 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #16 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of January 22 to January 28, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 859,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) and 3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Aluminum billet production was 314,000 kt, showing a decrease of 5% WoW, an increase of 15% YoY, and a decrease of 8% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 4.3 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 1.7 mnt, up 7.6% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 1,274 kt on January 29, 2026, reflecting a 6% increase WoW, a 2% increase YoY, and a 64% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Social and producers' inventory comprised 1,053 kt and 222 kt respectively, with social inventory up 6% WoW and 44% YoY, while producers' inventory increased by 9% WoW but decreased by 58% YoY [3] - For aluminum ingot, total inventory was 881 kt (+4% WoW, +28% YoY, +66% YoY on lunar calendar), and for aluminum billet, total inventory was 393 kt (+11% WoW, -31% YoY, +60% YoY on lunar calendar) [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 798 kt during the week, down 5% WoW but up 53% YoY, and down 5% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingot was 850 kt (-2% WoW, +18% YoY) and for aluminum billet was 262 kt (-13% WoW, +243% YoY) [4] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 4.0 mnt, up 6.4% YoY, with aluminum ingot and billet apparent consumption increasing by 0.2% and 31.4% YoY respectively [4] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The report indicates that the aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to the inclusion of various types of aluminum inventory [5] - Total aluminum inventory increased WoW, and the inventory level was higher than the same period in 2022-2025 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2023 but lower than in 2024-2025 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector [1] - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in the sector pecking order, followed by copper, battery materials, gold, coal, cement, and steel [1] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the research report on the aluminum industry in China, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends along with market sentiment.