中国地产 -1 月房价跌幅收窄；复苏可持续性存疑-China Property-Softer Home Prices Decline in January; Sustainability in Doubt

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically discussing trends in home prices and market dynamics in January 2026 [1][8]. Key Points Home Price Trends - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month (m-m) and 14.1% year-on-year (y-y) in January 2026, showing a softer decline compared to previous months [2][14]. - 98% of the sample cities experienced m-m decreases, but only 9% saw faster declines, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][16]. - Tier 1 cities reported a milder drop of -0.3% m-m compared to -1.3% in December, attributed to a pickup in secondary home sales due to mild policy easing [2][5]. Listings and Market Activity - Total listings remained stable, with an average decrease of 0.2% m-m across approximately 50 sample cities [3]. - New secondary listings decreased by 10% m-m but increased by 40% y-y due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline [3]. - Visits to agent shops decreased by 1% m-m but rose 80% y-y on average in January, suggesting a seasonal effect [4][11]. Future Expectations - The company expects further home price declines, projecting 8% and 6% y-y declines in secondary home prices for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5]. - The sentiment-driven outperformance in the industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of near-term headwinds affecting companies like Greentown, Jinmao, Longfor, and Vanke [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report favors quality companies with credible self-help stories for 2026, such as CR Land and Seazen, which are expected to benefit from the focus on consumption and supportive policies for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [6]. - C&D International is highlighted as a consolidator in the residential market with an optimized land bank supporting margins and positive earnings growth [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that 67% of the sample cities had higher total listings compared to pre-easing levels in September 2024, with about 30% reaching record-high levels [3]. - The physical market downtrend is expected to continue but at a softer pace, with potential stabilization in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities by the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [5]. Conclusion - The China Property market is experiencing a challenging environment with declining home prices and high secondary listings impacting buyer sentiment. The outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued price declines and a focus on quality companies for investment opportunities.