美元与大宗商品波动：拆解跨资产走势-GOAL Kickstart_ Dollar and commodity volatility — dissecting cross-asset moves

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the volatility in the dollar and commodities, particularly focusing on precious metals like Gold and Silver, which experienced significant corrections recently [1][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - Precious Metals Volatility: Gold and Silver saw their sharpest corrections since the 1980s, with Gold dropping by 11% and Silver by 31% after reaching record highs [1]. - S&P 500 Performance: The S&P 500 briefly hit 7,000 during the 4Q25 earnings releases, with 47% of market cap reporting and 59% beating consensus EPS by more than one standard deviation [1]. - Dollar Movement: The Dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022 but reversed its trend later in the week. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50–3.75%, citing improvements in growth and labor markets [1]. - ISM Manufacturing Index: The ISM manufacturing index reported a strong figure of 52.6, surpassing the median forecast of 48.5 [1]. - Risk Appetite Indicator: The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) peaked at 5-year highs two weeks ago, driven by growth optimism, but has since moderated. Key drivers included small-cap stocks, cyclicals, emerging market assets, and Dollar weakness [2]. - Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical tensions have exerted upward pressure on commodities, particularly precious metals, which rallied sharply due to a liquidity squeeze in London [3]. - Gold/S&P 500 Ratio: The Gold/S&P 500 ratio increased, indicating a divergence between precious metals and equities, with Gold volatility spiking to levels last seen during the COVID-19 crisis [3][21]. - Asset Allocation Strategy: The company remains modestly pro-risk in asset allocation for 2026, despite the elevated risk appetite increasing the potential for volatility. The expectation is for a modest decline in the Dollar this year, particularly against emerging market and cyclical currencies [4]. Additional Important Insights - Cross-Asset Correlations: There is a noted negative correlation between the US Dollar and various assets, particularly global equities excluding the US, emerging market equities, and commodities like Gold [3][17]. - Future Projections: The commodities team projects a price of $5,400 for Gold by December 2026, with specific hedging strategies recommended in a rising Dollar scenario [9]. - Market Sentiment: The report highlights the importance of managing US asset dominance through regional diversification and selective FX hedging [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the volatility in the dollar and commodities, particularly precious metals, and the implications for market strategies and asset allocation.