金属与矿业-铁矿石稳如磐石-metal&ROCK-Iron Ore Solid As A Rock

Summary of Iron Ore Market Analysis Industry Overview - Industry: Iron Ore - Date: February 2, 2026 - Source: Morgan Stanley Research Key Points Iron Ore Market Dynamics - Iron ore has shown resilience despite a decline in Chinese steel output and the commencement of shipments from the Simandou mine, with modest downside expected ahead [1][3] - China's crude steel output decreased by 5% in 2025, but pig iron production via blast furnaces only fell by 2%, indicating a continued demand for iron ore [3][25] - Iron ore port inventories in China have reached near all-time highs, suggesting a robust demand story despite the increase in seaborne supply [26][42] Supply and Demand Factors - Seaborne iron ore supply from Australia, Brazil, and South Africa increased by 2.2% in 2025, totaling 1,396 million tonnes, marking a new all-time high [11][4] - Domestic iron ore output in China fell by 2.8% in 2025, with significant declines in Hebei province due to environmental inspections and resource depletion [19] - India's iron ore imports surged by 46% YoY in 2025, indicating a shift in sourcing patterns as domestic production struggles to keep pace with rising steel capacity targets [20] Price Outlook - The average iron ore price is projected to be $100 per tonne in 2026, with a potential trough of $95 per tonne in Q3 [5][42] - The cost curve indicates that around 60 million tonnes of production is above $100 per tonne, influenced by rising oil prices and a weaker USD [4][36] - The introduction of a new 61% Fe benchmark in January 2026 reflects a shift in pricing dynamics, complicating the market landscape [39][40] Risks and Opportunities - Upside risks include a sharp decline in China's domestic iron ore output, large-scale stimulus measures, and seasonal supply disruptions [42] - Downside risks involve accelerated supply growth, reduced blast furnace utilization, and potential steel export restrictions from China [42] - The activity of China's joint purchasing group (CMRG) could impact market dynamics, particularly if disputes over pricing negotiations lead to restricted shipments [38] Conclusion - The iron ore market is navigating a complex landscape characterized by resilient demand from blast furnaces in China, increasing seaborne supply, and evolving pricing benchmarks. While modest price declines are anticipated, the overall market remains supported by cost structures and potential demand from emerging markets like India [1][42]