亚洲科技行业：上行周期重启-2026 下半年 - 2028 年 ABF 载板短缺率将达 10-42%；上调京瓷评级至买入，维持揖斐电买入评级（对比 CL）

Summary of Conference Call on ABF Substrate Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate industry, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance expected to emerge from 2H26 through 2028, with shortage ratios projected at 10% in 2H26, expanding to 21% in 2027 and 42% in 2028 [1][9][12]. Key Insights and Arguments - Supply Tightness: The supply tightness for ABF substrates is expected to worsen monthly, with a projected shortage ratio of 10% in 2H26, which could escalate to 21% in 2027 and 42% in 2028. This trend mirrors the supply shortage experienced in 2020, which saw pricing hikes of 20-30% year-over-year [1][3]. - Demand Drivers: The demand for ABF substrates is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by: - AI server demand, which is expected to grow by over 70% from 2025 to 2028 [9]. - General server CPU shipments projected to increase by approximately 40% during the same period [9]. - The overall ABF Total Addressable Market (TAM) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 33% from 2025 to 2028 [8][9]. - Capacity Expansion: Limited capacity expansion is expected from ABF substrate suppliers until at least 2H27 due to conservative expansion plans and ongoing material shortages, particularly T-glass [3][36]. Kinsus is the only supplier with announced capacity expansion plans, aiming for a 25% increase in 2027 [57]. - Pricing Outlook: A pricing increase of 3-5% quarter-over-quarter is expected in 1Q26, with further increases of approximately 10% per quarter for the remainder of 2026, driven by the anticipated supply shortages [7][12]. Company-Specific Insights - Kinsus: - Upgraded to a Buy rating with a target price raised to NT$370 from NT$125.68, reflecting a strong earnings outlook driven by capacity expansion and increased market share in AI-related substrates [2][57]. - Expected to capture a growing share of the AI substrate market, with projections of 5% market share in 2025 increasing to 30% in subsequent years [57]. - NYPCB: - Maintained a Buy rating with a target price increase to NT$655 from NT$340, benefiting from favorable pricing conditions in the BT substrate market [2][49]. - Unimicron: - Target price raised to NT$370 from NT$170, but maintained a Neutral rating due to limited upside potential compared to peers [2][52]. Additional Important Points - Material Shortages: The ongoing T-glass shortage is exacerbating the supply issues for ABF substrates and delaying capital expenditure plans across the industry [4][36]. - Longer Lead Times: Customers are experiencing longer order lead times for ABF substrates, indicating a tightening supply despite suppliers not operating at full capacity [10]. - Market Dynamics: The current market conditions are reminiscent of the early stages of the last upcycle, with key materials in short supply for over six months [10]. - Risks: Potential risks include slower-than-expected recovery in PC and smartphone demand, which could impact Kinsus's revenue and profit outlook [65][67]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the ABF substrate industry, highlighting the expected supply-demand dynamics, pricing outlook, and company-specific developments.