中国股票策略：中港资金流向与持仓月度追踪-2026 年 1 月-China Equity Strategy-ChinaHK Flows and Positioning Monthly Tracker – January 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China/HK equity market and the flows and positioning of funds as of January 2026, highlighting trends in foreign-domiciled mutual funds and A-share market liquidity [1][11]. Core Insights - Foreign Fund Flows: In January 2026, US and EU mutual fund inflows to China reached US$9 billion, the highest since October 2024. This marks the first net inflow for active funds since early 2023, with passive funds contributing US$7.4 billion and active funds US$1.2 billion [11]. - National Team Selling: The national team sold approximately US$83 billion since mid-January 2026, reversing all post-2024 inflows and leaving only US$16 billion since 2020. This suggests that selling pressure may ease moving forward [11][39]. - Retail Activity: A-share retail activity improved significantly in January, with new account registrations reaching 4.9 million, surpassing the previous peak of 3.1 million in March 2025, although still below the 6.8 million high from October 2024 [48][43]. - Small Order Inflows: The daily average net inflow of small A-share orders surged to Rmb37 billion, exceeding the previous peak of Rmb34 billion in February 2025, but still below the Rmb48 billion high from October 2024 [48][49]. Fund Positioning - Active Weights: Active fund managers increased their positions in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals, while reducing exposure in Media & Entertainment, Consumer Services, and Tech Hardware [25]. - Company-Specific Changes: Notable increases in positions were seen in companies like Alibaba (BABA), Montage, and AIA, while Tencent, PDD, and Meituan saw reductions [25]. Market Liquidity - A-share Liquidity: The report indicates a notable improvement in A-share liquidity, with retail investor activity showing signs of recovery, although still below previous highs [39][43]. - ETF Flows: The national team's selling has led to significant outflows from ETFs, particularly large-cap index ETFs, which have seen cumulative outflows of around US$83 billion since mid-January 2026 [37][38]. Additional Insights - Private Fund AUM: Private fund assets under management (AUM) increased slightly in December 2025, totaling Rmb1.9 trillion for the year, indicating a re-engagement of high-net-worth individuals in the stock market [52]. - Onshore Mutual Funds: Onshore equity and hybrid mutual funds experienced a notable decline in AUM by Rmb498 billion in January 2026, primarily due to national team selling [56]. Conclusion - The report highlights a complex landscape for the China/HK equity market, with signs of recovery in retail participation and foreign fund inflows, but also significant selling pressure from national teams and a decline in onshore mutual fund AUM. The overall sentiment suggests cautious optimism as selling pressures may ease and retail activity improves [11][39][56].