亚洲经济：亚洲工业周期正转向-Asia Economics-The Viewpoint Asia’s industrial cycle is inflecting

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia Pacific industrial sector, highlighting its significant role in the global economy, accounting for almost 50% of the world's industrial value-add and 33% of Asia's GDP [6][11]. Core Insights - Industrial Production Growth: Asia ex China's industrial production growth has reached a 42-month high, with a 5.1% year-on-year growth recorded in December 2025, marking the fastest pace since June 2022 [5][10][12]. - Drivers of Growth: Key drivers for industrial production growth in 2026 include: - Increased spending on AI infrastructure, energy transition, and defense [36]. - A rise in non-tech exports due to increased spending from economies outside Asia [5][6]. - Broad-Based Improvement: All economies in Asia ex China are now in expansionary territory, with manufacturing PMI readings above 50 for the first time since April 2022 [10][14]. Economic Indicators - PMI and Trade Data: Incoming industrial production, PMI, and trade data indicate a consistent improvement in industrial activity, particularly in Asia ex China [9]. - Commodity Prices: Rising industrial commodity prices, with the CRB industrial commodity price index reaching a 3.5-year high, reflect increased demand and tight supply conditions [9][21]. Export Dynamics - Non-Tech Exports Recovery: Non-tech exports have increased by 4% compared to December 2024, with a 7.6% annualized rebound in December 2025 [26]. - New Export Orders: The new export orders sub-index within PMI rose to a seven-month high of 52.3 in January 2026, indicating a broadening recovery across the region [26]. Future Projections - Power Demand Growth: Global power demand is expected to grow at a 3.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with Asia's power demand projected to grow at 4.6% CAGR, necessitating significant investments in energy infrastructure [37][39]. - AI Infrastructure Spending: Continued growth in AI infrastructure spending is anticipated, with significant capex required for construction and equipment [42]. - Defense Spending Increase: Asia's defense spending is projected to rise to US$1 trillion annually by 2030, up from US$600 billion in 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions [53]. Conclusion - The industrial cycle in Asia is showing signs of improvement, supported by increased spending in key sectors and a broad-based recovery in manufacturing and exports. The outlook for 2026 appears positive, with several tailwinds expected to drive further growth in the industrial sector [6][36].