中国市场：两会预示今年国内增长目标低于去年-China_ Local _Two Sessions_ point to a lower national growth target this year than last year

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for China, particularly regarding the growth targets set by various provinces during their local "Two Sessions" meetings, which provide insights into national economic policy and targets for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Lowered Growth Targets: Out of 31 mainland Chinese provinces, 19 have lowered their growth targets for 2026, indicating a trend towards more conservative economic expectations. The national GDP growth target is expected to be adjusted to "4.5-5.0%" for this year, down from "around 5%" last year [1][7][19]. 2. Inflation and Fiscal Deficit: The inflation target is anticipated to remain at "around 2%", which is viewed as a ceiling rather than a binding target. The official fiscal deficit is expected to stay at 4.0% of GDP, with local government special bond issuance quotas remaining unchanged at RMB4.6 trillion [1][7][19]. 3. Provincial Performance: In 2025, 55% of provinces met their GDP growth targets, while 45% did not. The weighted average GDP growth target for 2026 is projected to moderate to 5.1%, down from 5.3% in 2025 [5][17]. 4. Labor Market Stability: Policymakers are likely to maintain employment targets, aiming for "above 12 million" new urban jobs and a surveyed unemployment rate of "around 5.5%". These targets are seen as achievable but not binding due to their design [9][19]. 5. Long-term Development Strategy: The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) will emphasize technology, security, and people's livelihood as key priorities for China's development from 2026 to 2030, reflecting a shift towards "high-quality growth" [9][19]. Additional Important Content - Geopolitical Concerns: The lowered growth targets may reflect concerns over geopolitical uncertainties, allowing policymakers flexibility in response to potential economic shocks [7][8]. - Government Bond Issuance: The total government bond net issuance quota is expected to rise to around RMB12.3 trillion in 2026, indicating a proactive fiscal stance to support growth amidst uncertainties [8][19]. - Upcoming National "Two Sessions": The national "Two Sessions" are scheduled for March 4 and 5, where Premier Li will announce various economic targets, including GDP growth and fiscal policies, alongside the release of the Government Work Report [6][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and the implications for future growth and policy directions.