2026-02-04 02:33Summary of Conference Call on Global Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, specifically the competition between Intel and TSMC regarding advanced packaging technologies for AI chips, particularly the Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge-T (EMIB-T) technology offered by Intel as an alternative to TSMC's CoWoS packaging method [2][12]. Core Points and Arguments 1. EMIB-T Technology: - EMIB-T is an enhanced version of Intel's existing EMIB technology, designed to support larger reticle sizes and provide a more cost-effective solution for AI chip packaging compared to TSMC's CoWoS [3][34]. - Intel claims EMIB-T can support reticle sizes of 8-12x by 2026-2027, compared to TSMC's current capabilities of 3.3x and future plans for 5.5x and 9.5x [3][34]. 2. Financial Impact: - If 1 million chips shift from CoWoS to EMIB-T, TSMC could face a revenue loss of approximately $1 billion, which is about 5-10% of its advanced packaging revenue in 2027, but only 0.5% of its total revenue [4][52]. - Conversely, Intel could see a revenue increase of high triple-digit millions, representing 1-2% of its revenue [4][51]. 3. Market Positioning: - Ibiden is highlighted as a strong player in the EMIB-T market, with expectations of increased revenue and margins due to the complexity of EMIB-T substrates [5][54]. - The substrate value for EMIB-T is projected to rise to approximately $300, significantly higher than previous generations [5][49]. 4. Geopolitical Considerations: - Intel's existing advanced packaging capacity in the U.S. provides a competitive edge, especially as TSMC plans to build new packaging fabs in Arizona, which may not be operational until 2028 [13][35]. 5. Challenges for EMIB-T: - The main challenges for EMIB-T include a lack of proven track record and potential lower production yields due to the complexity of embedding silicon bridges in the substrate [3][34]. Additional Important Content - Customer Engagement: Intel has indicated potential early customer engagements worth "north of a billion dollars" each, although this remains uncertain [4][51]. - Future Developments: Intel is also exploring advancements in 3.5D packaging, which combines EMIB with Foveros Direct technology, aiming to compete more effectively with TSMC's offerings [42][43]. - Investment Ratings: - Ibiden, TSMC, and MediaTek are rated as "Outperform," while Intel is rated as "Market-Perform" [8][9][10][11]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a significant shift with Intel's EMIB-T technology potentially challenging TSMC's dominance in advanced packaging for AI chips. The financial implications for both companies are substantial, with Ibiden positioned to benefit from this transition. However, challenges remain regarding production yields and the need for proven technology.