中国在线旅游平台：我们对 AI 可能给 OTA 带来的潜在影响的看法-China OTAs Our Thoughts on Potential Impact on OTAs from AI

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Online Travel Agency (OTA) industry, specifically focusing on companies like Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) and Tongcheng Travel Holdings (Tongcheng) [2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - Impact of AI on OTAs: - There are rising concerns among investors regarding the potential threats posed by AI to OTAs. However, it is believed that Agentic AI will not materially impact OTAs in the short to medium term due to: 1. Strong bargaining power of leading OTAs, allowing them to offer better pricing, especially in hotel and experience travel [2][4]. 2. The complexity of travel booking decisions, which involve multiple factors beyond simple prompts that AI can capture [2][4]. - Integration with AI Applications: - OTAs may leverage their strengths in pricing, product inventories, fulfillment systems, and customer service to collaborate with large language model (LLM) applications. This could help capture traffic that may be diverted to those apps [2][4]. - Current collaborations include Doubao sourcing flight information from TCOM and Yuanbao listing Tongcheng as a travel information source [4]. - User Preferences: - Users typically prefer to compare prices across different platforms, making a single OTA platform integration into an LLM app less attractive. An LLM app that integrates multiple leading OTA platforms could be more appealing [4]. Financial Valuation - Tongcheng Travel Holdings: - The target price is set at HK$28, based on a 16x non-IFRS 2026E EPS, reflecting a discount to the historical average of 21x due to a slower revenue growth profile [6]. - Trip.com Group Ltd: - The target price is set at US$82, with the core business valued at approximately US$76 per share based on a 20x P/E for 2026E, applying a 20% premium to the average P/E of other vertical leaders [8]. Risks Identified - For Tongcheng: - Key risks include: 1. Greater-than-expected competition from OTA peers or other travel booking channels. 2. Heavy reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com. 3. Dependence on Tencent's platforms. 4. Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions [7]. - For Trip.com: - Risks include: 1. Further softening of the China macro environment affecting travel demand. 2. Delayed recovery in travel demand. 3. Worsening spending and margins. 4. Intensified domestic competition. 5. Potential new outbreaks of Covid-19 or other epidemics [9]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of considering various factors in investment decisions, including potential conflicts of interest due to the firm's business relationships with the companies discussed [5][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the OTA industry, financial valuations, and associated risks.