能源研讨会 - 油轮市场专家电话会议核心要点-Energy Symposium Week_ Key takeaways from expert call on tanker market

Key Takeaways from the Tanker Market Expert Call Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the tanker market, particularly crude and clean tankers, as part of the Energy Symposium Week hosted by Goldman Sachs on February 3, 2026. The expert from Oil Brokerage Ltd (OB) expressed a generally positive outlook for the total tanker market, projecting a net demand increase of +3.6 percentage points by 2026 [1][4]. Core Insights Crude Tanker Market - Demand Growth: OB forecasts a +5.8% year-over-year (YoY) growth in crude tanker demand for 2026, driven by: - Stockpiling due to sustained increases in crude production, which is expected to outpace demand growth. - Enhanced long-haul shipping demand from rising crude oil output in the Atlantic Basin [4]. - Supply Dynamics: The effective fleet supply is projected to grow by +2% YoY, leading to a net demand increase of +3.8% for crude tankers in 2026. However, demand growth is expected to slow to +2.1% YoY in 2027, with supply growth at +3% YoY, resulting in a -0.9% net supply for that year [4][5]. Clean Tanker Market - Demand Forecast: Clean tanker demand is also expected to grow, with projections of +5% and +3% YoY growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively. This growth is supported by elevated refinery margins due to tight capacity and healthy demand [4]. - Supply Concerns: Despite the demand growth, supply for clean tankers is anticipated to increase by +4% and +6% YoY in 2026 and 2027, respectively, leading to a +1% net demand in 2026 and a -3% net supply in 2027 [4]. Aging Fleet and Orderbook - The orderbook for uncoated tankers has reached approximately 91% of the trading fleet over 20 years old as of January 2026. OB believes that deliveries will not be sufficient to replace aging ships, which may exit the market through scrapping or being absorbed into a shadow fleet [5]. Geopolitical Impacts - OB anticipates a shift in trade volumes towards compliant vessels, which would positively impact Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) demand if restrictions on Venezuelan or Iranian oil are lifted. Specifically, the removal of sanctions on Venezuelan oil could necessitate an additional 44 VLCCs and 19 Aframax tankers [5]. - Conversely, a reopening of the Suez Canal could negatively affect clean tanker demand, particularly for LR2 vessels [5]. Additional Insights - The expert highlighted that the return on investment (RoI) for crude tankers has improved, leading to an increase in ordering frequency for uncoated tankers in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. - The expert expressed skepticism regarding constructive dialogue between the US and Iran, suggesting that disruptions in the Middle East are more likely than a resolution [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the expert call, providing insights into the current and future state of the tanker market, including demand forecasts, supply dynamics, and geopolitical influences.