Carlyle(CG) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - 2025 was a record year for the company, with fee-related earnings (FRE) up 12% year-over-year, reaching a margin of 47% [4][15] - Total inflows amounted to $54 billion, significantly exceeding the original target of $40 billion, and representing a 32% increase year-over-year [4][16] - Distributable earnings (DE) for 2025 were $1.7 billion, or $4.02 per share, an 11% increase from the previous year [13][15] - Total fee revenues reached a record $2.6 billion for the full year, reflecting a 10% organic growth rate [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Carlyle AlpInvest generated a record $274 million of FRE for the year, up nearly 60% [17] - Global Credit delivered a record $402 million of FRE for 2025, up 21% from the prior year [18] - Global private equity realized over $18 billion of proceeds in 2025, the highest level in the past three years [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company was the number 1 private equity sponsor globally by IPO proceeds, generating approximately $10 billion of IPO issuance over the past two years [5][6] - The IPO of Medline raised more than $7 billion, marking it as the largest sponsor-backed IPO of all time [6] - Direct lending had a record quarter of originations, with CLO inflows of $7 billion in 2025, up almost 20% from the prior year [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on investment performance, disciplined capital allocation, and delivering long-term value for global investors and shareholders [11] - Strategic investments have been made in global wealth, insurance solutions, and asset-backed finance, with significant opportunities for continued growth [15] - The company plans to host a shareholder update to share multi-year financial targets and insights into its strategic direction [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Despite recent market volatility, management remains optimistic about the economic engine, citing strong January data indicating good GDP growth and EBITDA generation [25][26] - The company expects continued growth supported by a diversified fundraising pipeline and improving capital markets conditions [20] - Management acknowledges the complexity of the macro environment but believes it is generally constructive for deployment and realization activity [20] Other Important Information - The company returned a record $1.2 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks during 2025 [19] - The balance sheet remains strong, with $2 billion in cash and over $3 billion in investments [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on sustainability of monetization momentum into 2026 - Management is cautious about extrapolating recent market volatility but notes that January data looks promising for GDP growth and margins [25][26] Question: State of play in direct lending and credit - Management feels well-positioned in direct lending and has added key leaders to enhance origination and integration across private credit strategies [32][34] Question: Expectations for management fee growth in 2026 - Management will provide more details in the upcoming shareholder update but emphasizes the diversification in business mix driving success [52][78] Question: Outlook for CLOs in 2026 - The CLO business has performed well, and management expects another active year, although it may not reach the record levels of the past two years [83] Question: Steps to enhance originations in the credit business - The company has built a strong origination team and achieved record originations in 2025, with plans to continue leveraging its capabilities [88][90]