未知机构：大摩人形机器人2026展望260206-20260209

Summary of the Human-Robot Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The human-robot industry is expected to reach a critical turning point in 2026, with an estimated shipment volume of approximately 28,000 to 30,000 units, primarily driven by government projects and data center initiatives [1][3][9] - The industry is currently in the early stages of commercialization, with significant potential for growth dependent on technological advancements, market demand, and support from capital markets [2][8] Key Insights and Arguments - Commercial Validation: More robots are anticipated to enter commercial validation scenarios in 2026, which is crucial for future development despite the slow pace of commercialization [2][9] - Growth Drivers: The expected growth in shipment volume is largely supported by government projects and data collection centers, with small-scale validations occurring across various industrial and commercial service scenarios [3][9] - Cost and Technology Trends: The report highlights ten key trends, including cost reductions, hardware maturity, advancements in dexterous hands, and expansion into overseas markets [4][8] - Market Dynamics: The industry is experiencing increasing competition, with companies needing to focus on developing practical commercial applications rather than merely increasing shipment volumes [8][10] Important but Overlooked Content - Component Market Analysis: The component market is characterized by a shift towards third-party procurement, with leading suppliers like Greentown Harmonic and Hengli Hydraulic expected to achieve revenue and profit growth [5][6][11] - Valuation Insights: Hengli Hydraulic's traditional business is valued at approximately 120 billion RMB, while its human-robot business is estimated between 30 to 40 billion RMB, indicating significant long-term growth potential [7][12] - Industry Challenges: The report notes that while there is substantial capacity investment in the component sector, a price war is not expected in the early stages due to the complexity of designs and the focus on performance quality [12] Conclusion - The human-robot industry is poised for rapid development, with a strong emphasis on technological innovation and market validation. Companies like Greentown Harmonic and Hengli Hydraulic are positioned to benefit significantly from this growth, while the overall market dynamics will continue to evolve as commercialization progresses [2][6][11]