TPU、GPU 及存储芯片需求持续强劲，但智能手机与 PC 半导体面临更多下行压力-Further Strength in TPU, GPU and Memory, but more downside in Smartphone and PC semis

Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing further strength in TPU (Tensor Processing Units), GPU (Graphics Processing Units), and memory sectors, while facing more downside in smartphone and PC semiconductors [1][4] Key Investment Insights - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Top Picks: TSMC, SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, and AllRing are highlighted as top investment ideas [9] - Memory Sector: Winbond is noted as a top pick, with other significant players including Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, and Macronix [9] - China Semiconductor Equipment: NAURA Tech and AMEC are mentioned as key players in the semiconductor equipment sector [9] - Market Dynamics: - Tech Inflation: Rising costs in wafers, OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), and memory are expected to create margin headwinds for chip designers in 2026 [9] - AI Cannibalization: There is a noted shift in the semiconductor supply chain prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in T-Glass and memory [9] - Domestic GPU Supply: The demand for domestic GPUs is questioned, particularly with the introduction of DeepSeek, which has demonstrated cheaper inferencing capabilities [9] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Valuation Comparison: - TSMC's current price is TWD 1,830.0 with a target price of TWD 2,088.0, indicating a 14% upside [11] - UMC's current price is TWD 62.7 with a target price of TWD 52.5, indicating a 16% downside [11] - SMIC's current price is HKD 69.9 with a target price of HKD 80.0, indicating a 14% upside [11] - Memory Sector Valuation: - GigaDevice's current price is CNY 290.9 with a target price of CNY 414.0, indicating a 42% upside [11] - Winbond's current price is TWD 107.0 with a target price of TWD 155.0, indicating a 45% upside [11] Market Trends - Broader Semiconductor Cycle: Logic semiconductor foundry utilization is reported at 70-80% in the first half of 2026, indicating that the sector is still not fully recovered [17] - AI vs. Non-AI Growth: Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth was slow at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [18] Additional Insights - Cloud Semiconductor Outlook: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have increased their capital expenditures by 64% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 [84] - Future Projections: The global semiconductor industry market size is projected to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030, with cloud AI semiconductor total addressable market (TAM) expected to grow to USD 235 billion by 2025 [93][99] Conclusion - The Greater China semiconductor industry is positioned for growth, particularly in AI and memory sectors, despite challenges in smartphone and PC segments. The focus on AI semiconductors and the robust demand from cloud service providers are key drivers for future performance.