美图-2025 年初步业绩：净利润符合预期

Summary of Meitu Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Meitu Inc (1357.HK) - Industry: Greater China IT Services and Software - Market Cap: Rmb25,535 million - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: HK$15.70, representing a 152% upside from the current price of HK$6.24 as of February 6, 2026 Key Financial Metrics - Fiscal Year Ending: December - 2025 Preliminary Results: - Estimated Adjusted Net Profit Growth: 60-66% YoY, projected between Rmb938-973 million - Midpoint of Adjusted Net Profit: Rmb956 million, compared to guidance of Rmb940 million and market consensus of Rmb950-1,000 million - 2H25 Adjusted Net Profit: Implies Rmb471-506 million, with a midpoint of Rmb488 million representing 56% YoY growth - Revenue Growth: Expected to drive by overseas user growth surpassing China - Net Profit Decline: Less than 30% YoY due to a one-time crypto gain in 2024 and non-cash costs from Alibaba CB issuance [6][3][3] Revenue and Earnings Projections - Revenue Estimates: - 2025: Rmb4,021 million - 2026: Rmb5,120 million - 2027: Rmb6,771 million - EBITDA Estimates: - 2025: Rmb1,040 million - 2026: Rmb1,504 million - 2027: Rmb2,131 million - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2025: Rmb0.21 - 2026: Rmb0.27 - 2027: Rmb0.40 [3][3] Valuation Methodology - Valuation Approach: 10-year DCF model to capture long-term benefits amid transition to a subscription-based model - Key Assumptions: - WACC: 10.9% - Cost of Equity: 11.8% - Cost of Debt: 4.0% - Terminal Growth Rate: 3% [7][7] Risks and Opportunities - Upside Risks: - Faster paying user penetration due to AI adoption - Higher-than-expected Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) - Improved operating leverage - Downside Risks: - Slower-than-expected paying user growth - Increased R&D expenses for AI development - Intensified competition from internet hyperscalers [9][9] Market Context - Industry View: In-Line, indicating expected performance in line with the broader market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [3][3] Additional Insights - The company has seen significant growth in overseas markets, which is expected to continue driving revenue and operational improvements in 2025 [6][6] - The stock's current valuation reflects a significant upside potential, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the context of the company's growth trajectory and market position [3][3]