中国经济活动与政策追踪 -2 月 6 日-China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker_ February 6

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically tracking economic activity and policy indicators as of February 6, 2026. It includes insights into consumption, production, investment, macro activity, and market policies [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Consumption and Mobility - Primary Market Transactions: The daily property transaction volume in the primary market for 30 cities has increased slightly over the last two weeks but remains below the levels observed during the previous year's Chinese New Year (CNY) [3][5]. - Secondary Market Transactions: The daily property transaction volume in the secondary market for 16 cities has decreased and is also below last year's levels [7][5]. - Traffic Congestion: Traffic congestion has decreased over the last two weeks and is below the patterns seen during last year's CNY [10][5]. - Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence has slightly declined as of December 2025 [14][5]. 2. Production and Investment - Steel Demand: Steel demand has edged down slightly but remains above the levels from a year ago [23][5]. - Steel Production: Steel production has remained roughly flat and is slightly above last year's levels [24][5]. - Coal Consumption: Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is slightly above the year-ago level [28][5]. - Local Government Bonds: A total of RMB 697 billion in local government special bonds have been issued year-to-date [30][5]. 3. Other Macro Activity - Port Throughput: Official port container throughput has increased and is well above the year-ago level [36][5]. - Freight Volume: The freight volume of departing ships at 20 major ports has decreased over the last two weeks but remains above last year's levels [38][5]. - Oil Demand: The nowcast indicates that China's oil demand has remained steady at 17.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) [44][5]. 4. Markets and Policy - Interbank Repo Rates: Interbank repo rates have remained roughly unchanged over the last week [50][5]. - Currency Movements: The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has appreciated against the USD but weakened against the CFETS basket over the last week [52][5]. - Policy Announcements: Several macro policy announcements have been made since November 2025, including: - Guidelines on accelerating new growth drivers in service consumption [57][5]. - Interest subsidies for bank lending to SMEs and a private investment guarantee scheme worth RMB 500 billion [57][5]. - Reduction of minimum mortgage down payments for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [57][5]. - A package of credit easing measures unveiled by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) [57][5]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these indicators as part of a broader investment decision-making process [5][5]. - The data sources include Wind, Haver Analytics, and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), among others [5][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and relevant policy measures.