液化天然气追踪 -供应增长仍在轨道上-LNG Tracker_ Supply Wave Still On Track

Summary of LNG Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, highlighting a significant supply wave expected to last seven years, starting in 2025 and peaking around 2030 [4][25]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - 2025 is projected to be the first year of the largest global LNG supply wave, with supply expected to average 431 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), slightly below the previous expectation of 433 mtpa [4][5]. - The U.S. is anticipated to lead the supply growth, with a notable ramp-up at the Plaquemines facility contributing to the overall supply despite some disruptions and delays in other regions [4][29]. - Global LNG supply growth from 2025 to 2030 is expected to increase by 193 mtpa, which is 45% of the 2025 global supply, significantly outpacing Asia's demand growth of 144 mtpa [4][7]. Price Forecasts - A bearish cycle for European natural gas prices (TTF) and LNG (JKM) is anticipated, with forecasts suggesting prices could drop below $5/mmBtu by 2028/29, more than 50% lower than current prices [4][66]. - The JKM-TTF spread has turned negative, indicating that JKM prices have not fully adjusted to the recent TTF price rally [12][20]. Demand Insights - Asia's LNG demand is expected to rise by 14 mtpa in 2026, driven by a 5 mtpa increase in China and a 7 mtpa rise in Southeast Asia [41][43]. - The demand response to low gas prices is estimated to be over 40 mtpa from China alone, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns [4]. Regional Supply Challenges - Structural supply losses are anticipated from Algeria and Indonesia due to rising domestic energy demands, with Algeria's export forecast lowered by 1 mtpa for future years [4][34]. - Delays in export capacity starts in the U.S., Canada, Congo, and Australia have led to a slower start for global LNG supply in 2026, although recovery is expected by the second half of the year [4][10]. Future Projects - All but one of the supply projects in the forecast through 2029 have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID), indicating strong commitment to future supply growth [4][3]. - Upcoming liquefaction projects are expected to increase global LNG supply by approximately 50% relative to 2024 by 2030 [4][36]. Additional Insights - The U.S. LNG export contracts are projected to remain profitable only through 2027, with significant implications for future export strategies [22][24]. - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the timing of liquefaction projects, as they are critical to balancing supply and demand in the LNG market [4][66]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the LNG market.