Duke Energy(US:DUK)2026-02-10 16:02Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $6.31 for 2025, reflecting a 7% increase from 2024 and exceeding the midpoint of the guidance range [4][14] - The 2026 EPS guidance is set between $6.55 and $6.80, with a long-term EPS growth rate of 5%-7% extended through 2030 [4][5] - The company achieved a 14.8% funds from operations (FFO) to debt ratio in 2025, with a forecast of approximately 14.5% for 2026 [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The electric segment is expected to drive most of the growth in 2026, supported by multi-year rate plans in North Carolina and Florida [14] - The gas segment will see growth from Piedmont Integrity Management riders and new rates at Duke Energy Kentucky [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed electric service agreements (ESAs) for an additional 1.5 GW of new data centers, bringing the total to approximately 4.5 GW secured under ESAs [16][17] - Data centers are projected to comprise about 75% of the economic development profile by the end of 2030, indicating a significant shift in load growth dynamics [89] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The capital plan has increased to $103 billion, representing an 18% rise, and is focused on critical energy infrastructure investments [5][18] - The company aims to add approximately 14 GW of incremental generation over the next five years, including battery and solar projects [10][11] - A disciplined approach to nuclear development is being maintained, with an early site permit submitted for a potential small modular reactor [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the top half of the EPS growth range starting in 2028, driven by load growth from data centers [4][22] - The focus remains on delivering reliable and affordable energy while managing costs and leveraging tax credits [8][19] - The company is committed to maintaining a flat operating and maintenance cost structure despite inflationary pressures [9] Other Important Information - The company is transitioning its investor relations leadership, with Abby Motsinger moving to Chief Accounting Officer and Mike Switzer taking over as Head of Investor Relations [22][23] - The company has mechanisms in place for storm cost recovery, which will not impact guidance for 2026 [30][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Costs or impacts from recent storms - Management is still compiling costs but does not anticipate any impact on guidance for 2026 due to effective recovery mechanisms [30][33] Question: North Carolina rate case strategy - Management is focused on delivering reliable and affordable energy and is prepared to settle portions of the rate case constructively [35][36] Question: CapEx outlook and data center opportunities - Management expressed confidence in the growth outlook, with all signed ESAs under construction and a robust pipeline [45][46] Question: Long-term growth rate outlook - The delta between earnings base CAGR and EPS CAGR is influenced by funding through equity and debt, with a robust revenue acceleration expected by 2028 [47][56] Question: FFO to debt targets - Management indicated that achieving the 15% FFO to debt target relies on executing the current plan without needing changes in regulatory policy [55][57] Question: Generation build cycle constraints - Management has planned for supply chain needs and is using a programmatic approach with EPC vendors to ensure timely project delivery [62] Question: Data center pipeline and interruptibility - Contracts with data centers include provisions for interruptibility, which helps speed up interconnection and maintain reliability [83] Question: Rate-based CAGR and minority investments - The rate-based growth of 9.6% includes minority investments, and management clarified that this is not a new practice [92]