中国消费：喜迎 2026 马年-中国春节旅游市场前瞻-China Consumer Embracing The Year of The Horse 2026 CNY Tourism Preview

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Consumer and Tourism Sector - Event: 2026 Chinese New Year (CNY) Tourism Preview Core Insights - Growth in Experiential Consumption: The structural growth of Chinese experiential consumption is expected to continue, with solid leisure travel demand anticipated during the upcoming CNY holiday [1] - Passenger Throughput Growth: The Ministry of Transportation estimates a +5.3% year-over-year growth in nationwide passenger throughput during the 40-day Chunyun period from February 2 to March 13, 2026 [1] - CNY Holiday Impact: The 9-day longer CNY holiday is expected to encourage leisure travel, positively impacting Hainan duty-free sales for China Tourism Group Duty Free and hotel RevPAR trends for Atour and H World [1] Duty-Free Sales Insights - Hainan Duty-Free Sales Growth: Hainan offshore duty-free sales grew by +45% year-over-year to RMB 4.53 billion in January 2026, driven by a +21% increase in the number of buyers and a +20% increase in per capita spending [2] - Future Sales Expectations: Solid duty-free sales trends in Hainan are expected to persist during the upcoming CNY Golden Week and winter peak season, supported by favorable duty-free policies and festival promotions [2] - Chunyun Sales Performance: During the first week of the Chunyun period (February 2-8), Hainan offshore duty-free recorded sales of RMB 1.106 billion, up +6.3% week-over-week [2] Lodging and Travel Trends - Hotel Room Rates: Encouraging Average Daily Rate (ADR) trends were observed in major destinations, with some lower-tier cities exceeding expectations in room sales [3] - Leisure Travel Demand: Solid leisure travel demand and inbound travel momentum are expected to benefit hotel RevPAR trends in China during the CNY Golden Week [3] - Outbound Travel Trends: Mixed trends are anticipated in Chinese outbound travel, with demand for Japan significantly down, potentially shifting to other Asian destinations and domestic tourism [4] Risks and Challenges - Travel-Related Risks: Key risks include potential impacts from natural disasters or pandemics, prolonged economic downturns, intense competition, and regulatory risks [30][32][34][36] Company-Specific Insights - Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd: Target price set at US$45.00 based on a 14x 2026E EV/EBITDA, reflecting faster growth and product competitiveness [30] - H World: Target price set at HK$38.50 based on a 14x 2025E EV/EBITDA, with industry leadership justifying the premium [33] Additional Observations - Local Demand Optimization: The unlimited "pick-up upon purchase" policy is expected to unleash local demand, enhancing convenience for Hainan residents [2] - Product Diversification: The optimization of product categories and inclusion of certain domestic products are set to diversify offerings in Hainan, catering to varying consumption dynamics [2]