半导体：先进封装加速扩张，以支撑 2026-2027 年云 AI 产品新周期- Semiconductors_ Advanced packaging_ accelerating expansion to support new Cloud AI product cycle in 2026-27

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the semiconductor industry, specifically the CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology, which is critical for advanced packaging in cloud AI products expected to ramp up in 2026-2027 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Capacity Expansion - The estimated industry's CoWoS capacity is raised to 150kwpm by the end of 2026, up from 135kwpm, and 90kwpm at the end of 2025. This aggressive expansion is driven by the demand for new cloud AI products from major companies like Nvidia, Google, AMD, and Amazon [2][3]. - TSMC is expected to increase its capacity from 70kwpm at the end of 2025 to 120kwpm by the end of 2026. OSATs (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) like ASE and Amkor are also projected to ramp up capacity from 20kwpm to 30kwpm in the same timeframe [2][3]. Customer Diversification - While TSMC remains the dominant supplier, it is anticipated to focus more on higher-end CoWoS-L for larger packages in 2026. ASE and Amkor are expected to benefit from the expanding market and customer diversification [3]. - ASE may ramp full-process CoWoS for AMD's Venice CPU and be involved in Broadcom's ASIC products. Amkor is expected to revive its CoWoS business through Nvidia's H200 and other products [3]. Production Forecasts - Nvidia is projected to account for 56% of CoWoS demand in 2026, down from 65% in 2025. The forecast includes 8.7 million Nvidia AI GPU production units, with 5.5 million units attributed to Blackwell and 2 million to Rubin [4]. - Broadcom's TPU unit production is expected to increase to 3.7 million units in 2026, with MediaTek's v8X ramping to 300k units in H226E [4]. Stock Recommendations - Top picks along the semiconductor supply chain for cloud AI include TSMC, MediaTek, and ASE. Equipment suppliers like Chroma, ASMPT, and GPTC are also recommended. Amkor has been downgraded to Neutral due to fair risk/reward [5]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the increasing traction of Intel's EMIB-T due to TSMC's tight supply and US reshoring demand, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [3]. - The next generation of AI GPUs and ASICs expected in 2027-2028 may utilize multiple back-end solutions, leveraging TSMC's CoWoS/CoPoS, OSAT's 2.5D packaging, and Intel's EMIB-T [3]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced packaging, is poised for significant growth driven by cloud AI demands. Companies like TSMC, ASE, and Amkor are positioned to capitalize on this trend, while Nvidia remains a key player in the CoWoS market. The evolving landscape suggests a diversification of suppliers and technologies that could reshape competitive dynamics in the coming years.